有色早报-20251222

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - For copper, the long - term TC of copper concentrate for next year is set at $0/ton, slightly higher than the previous market rumor. The overall fundamentals have no significant changes, and it is expected to be in a pattern of slight inventory accumulation. With overseas liquidity remaining loose, the copper price should be bought on dips, with the expected price range in December being $10,800 - $12,000 [1] - For aluminum, the import volume of primary aluminum decreased significantly in November, while exports increased. Domestic apparent demand is weak, and short - term consumption expectations are lowered. Although domestic demand is not good, the continuous decline of aluminum ingot inventory supports the aluminum price, which is expected to be in a volatile range [1] - For zinc, the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined this week, and the zinc price fell. The supply of domestic zinc mines is tightening, and there are production cuts in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while overseas demand in the US is rising. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in 01 - 03 and 03 - 05 spreads [6] - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are accumulating. The Indonesian Nickel Association plans to reduce the quota next year, and there is a game between short - term policy and fundamentals [10] - For stainless steel, steel mills maintain high production, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are relatively stable, and inventories are at a high level. The news of quota cuts by the Indonesian Nickel Association drives a short - term price rebound [12] - For lead, the lead price fell slightly this week. Primary lead production has maintenance - induced cuts, and secondary lead production has recovered. The demand for batteries is expected to weaken, but downstream restocking provides support. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,700 - 17,100 yuan, and attention should be paid to low - warrant risks [15] - For tin, the tin price rose rapidly this week. The processing fee of tin ore remains low. Overseas production recovery is slow, but high prices stimulate inventory exports. Demand is mainly rigid, and inventories at home and abroad are accumulating. There is a risk of marginal over - supply in the short term, and it can be a long - term multi - allocation in the first quarter [18] - For industrial silicon, Xinjiang's leading enterprises have stable operations, and some silicon plants in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are under maintenance. The supply - demand is expected to be balanced in December. In the short term, the price will fluctuate with costs, and in the long term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom [19] - For lithium carbonate, the futures price increased due to factors such as the cancellation of mining rights in Jiangxi and the delay of CATL's resumption. The raw material supply is tight, and upstream inventories are being depleted. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. In the short term, the supply - demand is strong, but demand is showing signs of weakening, and the price increase requires further inventory reduction [21] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - From December 15 - 19, the spot import profit decreased by $302.94, and the March import profit decreased by $231.78. The LME inventory decreased by 3,875 tons, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 5,100 tons [1] Aluminum - From December 15 - 19, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 80 yuan, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 90 yuan, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 90 yuan. The domestic alumina price decreased by 17 yuan, and the imported alumina price decreased by $50. The domestic social inventory of aluminum increased by 7,175 tons [1] Zinc - From December 15 - 19, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 30 yuan, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 40 yuan, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 40 yuan. The domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 24,191 tons. The LME zinc inventory increased by 500 tons, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 1,900 tons [4][5] Nickel - From December 15 - 19, the price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 3,550 yuan. The spot import profit increased by $627.52, the LME inventory increased by 612 tons, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 2,820 tons [10] Stainless Steel - From December 15 - 19, the 304 cold - rolled coil price increased by 150 yuan, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 100 yuan, the 201 cold - rolled coil price increased by 50 yuan, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50 yuan [12] Lead - From December 15 - 19, the spot import profit decreased by $49.10, the futures import profit decreased by $31.72, the LME inventory decreased by 3,500 tons, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 4,275 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased by 10,707 tons [13] Tin - From December 15 - 19, the spot import profit increased by $1,133.60, the spot export profit decreased by $1,430.96, the LME inventory increased by 220 tons, and the LME注销仓单 remained unchanged [18] Industrial Silicon - From December 15 - 19, the 421 - grade Yunnan basis decreased by 45 yuan, the 421 - grade Sichuan basis decreased by 45 yuan, the 553 - grade East China basis decreased by 45 yuan, the 553 - grade Tianjin basis decreased by 45 yuan, and the number of warrants increased by 204 [19] Lithium Carbonate - From December 15 - 19, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 100 yuan, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 100 yuan, the basis of the main contract decreased by 5,140 yuan, the basis of the near - month contract decreased by 5,180 yuan, and the number of warrants decreased by 125 [21]