集运早报-20251222

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the EC2602 contract, its future trend mainly depends on the spot price. The contradiction lies in the peak height and time of the freight rate in January. Given the current valuation, the risk - reward ratio for both shorting and going long is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For the EC2604 contract, the short - term downside is limited. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities when it follows the spot price or recovers the basis [3]. - For the far - month contracts, a positive spread trading strategy is suggested, and short - selling opportunities for the EC2610 contract should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - Contract Prices and Changes: - EC2512 closed at 1630.1, up 0.35% with a basis of - 119.5, trading volume of 186, and an open interest of 1983 (down 160) [2]. - EC2602 closed at 1719.8, up 3.07% with a basis of - 209.2, trading volume of 31624, and an open interest of 31507 (down 136) [2]. - EC2604 closed at 1128.8, up 1.80% with a basis of 381.8, trading volume of 4225, and an open interest of 18837 (up 145) [2]. - EC2606 closed at 1288.3, up 1.40% with a basis of 222.3, trading volume of 437, and an open interest of 2220 (down 52) [2]. - EC2608 closed at 1453.2, up 0.85% with a basis of 57.4, trading volume of 87, and an open interest of 1288 (down 28) [2]. - EC2610 closed at 1050.3, up 0.78% with a basis of 460.3, trading volume of 413, and an open interest of 4935 (up 40) [2]. - Month Spreads: - EC2512 - 2504 was 501.3, down 14.3 day - on - day and 59.1 week - on - week [2]. - EC2512 - 2602 was - 89.7, down 45.5 day - on - day and 53.8 week - on - week [2]. - EC2502 - 2604 was 591.0, up 31.2 day - on - day and down 5.3 week - on - week [2]. Spot Market - Spot Indexes: - The SCHIS SCFI (European Line) on December 15, 2025, was 1510.56 points, up 0.10% from the previous period and 1.72% two periods ago [2]. - The CCFI on December 19, 2025, was 1473.9 points, up 0.23% from the previous period and 1.59% two periods ago [2]. - The NCFI on December 19, 2025, was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period and 9.98% two periods ago [2]. - European Line Spot Freight: - In Week 52, Maersk (MSK) opened at $2300 (down $100 from the previous week), with the market center at $2500, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market. All shipping companies announced price increases for January space [4]. - In Week 1, Maersk (MSK) opened at $2500 (up $200 from the previous week), and the market is waiting for other shipping companies to open their rates, with an overall bullish sentiment [4]. News - On December 19, a Maersk vessel crossed the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea for the first time in nearly two years. Maersk is considering gradually resuming East - West routes via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea under the premise of meeting safety standards [5]. - On December 20, officials from Turkey, the US, Qatar, and Egypt met in Miami to discuss the second - stage arrangements for a cease - fire in Gaza. The cease - fire framework has been maintained since the first - stage cease - fire agreement in October [6]. - On December 21, Israel informed the US that it might launch a second strike on Iran. Trump and Netanyahu are scheduled to meet at Mar - a - Lago later this month [6].