大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal is slightly tight but relatively stable, with some coal prices rising slightly. However, due to the terminal's rigid - demand purchasing and the pessimistic sentiment of coke price cuts, the coking coal price is under pressure. Considering the steel mills' losses, production cuts, and the expected decline of coke prices, the coking coal price is expected to be weak in the short term [2]. - Coke: The decline of raw coal prices has led to a decrease in coke producers' profits, and some coke producers have limited production due to environmental controls. But the overall coke supply is still loose. With the steel mills' cautious procurement and the continuous decline of raw coal prices, the third round of coke price cuts is about to be implemented, and the coke market is expected to be weak in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The resumption of production of coal mines is slow, supply is slightly tight and stable. Market sentiment has improved slightly, but the terminal is mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the price is under pressure; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 1140, with a basis of 32, and the spot is at a premium to the futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [3]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is increasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: The coking coal price is expected to be weak in the short term [2]. Coke - Fundamentals: The decline of raw coal prices has reduced coke producers' profits, and some have limited production. But the supply is still loose, and the steel mills are controlling inventory; bearish [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 1630, with a basis of - 110, and the spot is at a discount to the futures; bearish [7]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week; bullish [7]. - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; neutral [7]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is long, and the long position is increasing; bullish [7]. - Expectation: The coke market is expected to be weak in the short term [7]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish Factors: Rising hot metal production and difficult - to - increase supply [5]. - Bearish Factors: Slowing procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Bullish Factors: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish Factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [9]. 3.3 Price Information - Port Metallurgical Coke Price Index (December 19, 17:30): The prices of different grades and types of metallurgical coke from various ports and regions are provided, with most prices remaining unchanged [10]. - Imported Coking Coal Spot Price (December 19, 17:30): The prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing changes [11]. 3.4 Inventory Information - Port Inventory: The coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; the coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [19]. - Independent Coke Producer Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coke producers is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; the coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; the coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [28]. 3.5 Other Information - Capacity Utilization Rate of Coke Ovens: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke producers nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].