大越期货油脂早报-20251222

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Grease Morning Report - Date: 2025 - 12 - 22 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - Tel: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are in a volatile consolidation phase, with a loose domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply - Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports - Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026 - The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Group 4: Daily Views on Different Oils Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% increase month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season. The situation is neutral - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8124, with a basis of 412, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous 1.16 million tons, and an 11.7% increase year - on - year. It is bearish - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish - Main position: The long positions of soybean oil's main contract increased. It is bullish - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 7500 - 7900 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil's fundamental situation. However, palm oil will enter the production - increase season, so the supply will increase. The situation is neutral - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8330, with a basis of 38, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 570,000 tons, and a 34.1% decrease year - on - year. It is bullish - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish - Main position: The short positions of palm oil's main contract decreased. It is bullish - Expectation: Palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to the above two oils. Rapeseed oil will enter the production - increase season, so the supply will increase. The situation is neutral - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9381, with a basis of 637, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 550,000 tons, and a 3.2% increase year - on - year. It is bearish - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish - Main position: The long positions of rapeseed oil's main contract decreased. It is bearish - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [4] Group 5: Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply -利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high - Main logic: The global oil and fat fundamental situation is relatively loose [5] Group 6: Supply and Demand Charts - Supply - related charts include: import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing volume, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total oil and fat inventory [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23] - Demand - related charts include: soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption [13][15]