大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20251222

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Views PTA - The supply - demand pattern of PTA is expected to be acceptable in the near term, as some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving the continuous strengthening of the spot basis. The futures market has also risen significantly following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will show a strong - side fluctuation. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream loads [5]. MEG - Last week, the unloading of ethylene glycol at ports was smooth, and with some domestic trade goods being shipped into storage, it is expected that the visible inventory will still rise moderately early next week. Fundamentally, the medium - and long - term inventory accumulation expectation for ethylene glycol still exists, and the available spot in the market will continue to be abundant. It will take time to restore market confidence. Next week is the delivery node, so attention should be paid to the replenishment rhythm of traders in the market. In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol will mainly be sorted out at a low level, and attention should be paid to the impact of cost and device news [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No specific review content was found in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, December cargo was traded around 01 - 10 or at a 70 - point discount to 05, with individual transactions slightly higher at a 55 - point discount to 05, and the price negotiation range was 4680 - 4815. January cargo was traded around 05 - 60 to 70 or at the 01 level. Cargo for mid - to - late February was traded around 05 - 55. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 10 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4765, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 117, indicating a premium on the futures market [5]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.76 days, a decrease of 0.1 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net position is long, changing from short to long [5]. - Expectation: As mentioned in the core view [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the market buying sentiment was average. The ethylene glycol futures market showed a weak downward trend, and the follow - up of buyers in the market was average. The mainstream negotiation and transaction of next - week's spot were at a discount of 15 - 18 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Near the end of the session, the ethylene glycol spot price further weakened to around 3600 yuan/ton. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol external market weakened slightly, and the negotiation was rather stalemate. In the morning, the negotiation and transaction of December - end and January - shipped goods were around 430 - 435 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, as the ethylene glycol futures market weakened, the negotiation center of mid - January shipped goods fell to around 428 - 430 US dollars/ton. The negotiation ranges for domestic and external market transactions were 3600 - 3665 yuan/ton and 426 - 438 US dollars/ton respectively [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 3625, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 113, indicating a premium on the futures market [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 84.4 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: The net position is short, with a reduction in short positions [7]. - Expectation: As mentioned in the core view [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - The report mentions that the short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, so attention should be paid to the cost side. For a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA - The PTA supply - demand balance sheet shows data on PTA production capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. MEG - The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet shows data on ethylene glycol production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Price data for various products on December 19 and 18, 2025, including spot prices of naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis, and profit data for different production methods are provided [13]. - There are also multiple charts showing historical data on prices, production margins, inventory, and operating rates of PTA, MEG, PET bottle chips, polyester fibers, etc., from 2019 - 2025 [14][17][20] etc.