原油成品油早报-20251222

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the weekly oil price closed lower. On Tuesday, Trump ordered a "blockade" of Venezuelan tankers under sanctions and seized one tanker, causing the oil price to rebound. On Thursday, Venezuela approved two VLCCs to sail to Asia. On the 19th, Trump stated that the possibility of war with Venezuela was not ruled out. The Russia-Ukraine negotiation was at a stalemate, and Ukrainian drones attacked Russian oil platforms and targeted shadow fleet tankers in the Mediterranean. US media reported that if Putin refused the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, the US would impose new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet," and the White House responded that no new decisions had been made. Global supply and demand remained weak. This week, global oil inventories decreased. On Friday, the monthly spreads of crude oil in the three markets rebounded slightly, while the crack spreads of global gasoline and diesel continued to weaken. US refinery operations were at a high level, and domestic operations fluctuated. The fundamental oversupply was confirmed. The geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the Iran-Israel situation. The oversupply was significant in the first quarter, and short positions were recommended for monthly spreads and absolute prices [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Iran's military stated that it was closely monitoring the situation ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to the US and Israel's threats against Iran, and that Israel had not achieved any goals in the war against Iran and was isolated [3]. - The US was preparing to seize a third Venezuelan tanker due to escalating tensions [3]. - US Secretary of State Rubio said that progress had been made in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but there was still a long way to go [3]. - Ukrainian officials said that negotiations with the US and Europe had ended, and a "consensus" on further measures had been reached [4]. - Ukraine was reported to have attacked the Lukoil oil field in the Caspian Sea overnight [4]. - Ukraine launched its first attack on a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker in the Mediterranean, an escalation of its drone attacks, aiming to reduce Russia's oil revenue [4][5]. - The export volume of CPC Blend oil from the Black Sea in January was set at 1.65 million barrels per day, down from the December plan of 1.7 million barrels per day [5]. 2. Inventory - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 12 decreased by 9.322 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 2.197 million barrels and the previous decrease of 4.779 million barrels [5]. - US API gasoline inventory for the week ending December 12 increased by 4.835 million barrels, higher than the expected increase of 2.1 million barrels and lower than the previous increase of 6.955 million barrels [5]. - US API refined oil inventory for the week ending December 12 increased by 2.511 million barrels, higher than the expected increase of 2.066 million barrels and the previous increase of 1.027 million barrels [5]. - According to the EIA report, commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 1.274 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.3% [5]. - According to the EIA report, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 249,000 barrels to 412.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% in the week ending December 12 [5]. - According to the EIA report, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.843 million barrels per day in the week ending December 12 [5]. - According to the EIA report, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.521 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.82% [5]. - According to the EIA report, US crude oil exports increased by 655,000 barrels per day to 4.664 million barrels per day in the week ending December 12 [5]. - According to the EIA report, the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.525 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of 64,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [5].