工业硅期货早报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. Supply scheduling has decreased but remains at a high level. - Demand side: Last week's demand was 81,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.00%, showing a rise in demand. However, overall demand recovery is at a low level. - Cost side: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season. - Expectation: Industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 8,780 yuan/ton [3][4]. Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week's polysilicon output was 25,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%. The scheduled output for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. Supply scheduling continues to decline. - Demand side: Downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have all seen a continuous decline in production, with overall demand showing a continuous recession. - Cost side: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton, with cost support remaining stable. - Expectation: Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 59,235 - 61,255 yuan/ton [7][8][9]. Overall Market - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and a situation of strong supply and weak demand in downstream polysilicon. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: 88,000 tons last week, flat week - on - week. - Demand: 81,000 tons last week, up 8.00% week - on - week. - Inventory: Social inventory is 553,000 tons, down 1.42% week - on - week; sample enterprise inventory is 192,500 tons, up 2.94% week - on - week; major port inventory is 138,000 tons, up 1.47% week - on - week. - Basis: On December 19th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was 510 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below MA20. - Main positions: Net short positions by the main players, with short positions decreasing [3][4]. Polysilicon - Supply: Output of 25,000 tons last week, down 0.39% week - on - week; December scheduled output of 113,500 tons, down 0.95% month - on - month. - Demand: Downstream production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all in decline. - Cost: Average cost of N - type polysilicon is 38,600 yuan/ton, and production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton. - Basis: On December 19th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was - 7,845 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week, at a historically high level. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed above MA20. - Main positions: Net short positions by the main players, with short positions decreasing [7][8][9]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Most contracts showed an increase, with the largest increase of 0.64% in the 09 contract and a decrease of 0.06% in the 07 contract. - Basis: Most contracts showed a decline, with the largest decline of 8.11% in the 05 contract. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9,019, an increase of 2.31% [16][17]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed an increase, with the largest increase of 2.29% in the 11 contract. - Basis: All contracts showed a decline, with the largest decline of 15.32% in the 02 contract. - Inventory: Weekly total inventory was 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [19]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Price Difference Trends The report shows the historical trends of the main contract basis of industrial silicon and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [21][22]. 5. Polysilicon Disk Price Trends The report shows the historical trends of the main contract price, trading volume, and basis of polysilicon [24][25]. 6. Industrial Silicon Inventory - Delivery warehouse and port inventory: The report shows the historical trends of inventory in various regions and ports. - SMM sample enterprise inventory: The report shows the historical trends of inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. - Registered warehouse receipt volume: The report shows the historical trends of the number of registered warehouse receipts [27][28][29]. 7. Industrial Silicon Output and Capacity Utilization Trends - SMM sample enterprise weekly output: The report shows the historical trends of output in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan. - Industrial silicon monthly output by specification: The report shows the historical trends of output of 421, non - oxygen - passing 553, oxygen - passing 553, and other types of silicon. - SMM sample enterprise capacity utilization: The report shows the historical trends of capacity utilization in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan [31][32][33]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends The report shows the historical trends of cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [38][39]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Weekly supply - demand balance: The report shows the historical trends of production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon. - Monthly supply - demand balance: The report shows the actual consumption, export volume, import volume, production, and supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from November 2024 to November 2025 [40][43][44]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC price and production trends: The report shows the historical trends of DMC capacity utilization, profit, cost, output, and price. - Downstream price trends: The report shows the historical trends of prices of 107 rubber, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4. - Import - export and inventory trends: The report shows the historical trends of DMC import, export, and inventory [46][48][52]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply situation: The report shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling, social inventory, aluminum scrap import, aluminum alloy import - export, ADC12 price, and import cost - profit. - Output and production capacity trends: The report shows the historical trends of monthly output of primary aluminum - based and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots. - Demand (automobiles and wheels): The report shows the historical trends of automobile monthly output, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [56][58][61]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Fundamental trends: The report shows the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, inventory, output, operating rate, and demand. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report shows the supply - demand balance of polysilicon from October 2024 to October 2025. - Silicon wafer trends: The report shows the historical trends of silicon wafer price, output, inventory, demand, and net export. - Battery cell trends: The report shows the historical trends of battery cell price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export. - Photovoltaic component trends: The report shows the historical trends of component price, inventory, output, and export. - Photovoltaic accessory trends: The report shows the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, film import - export, glass output, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export. - Component composition cost - profit trends (210mm): The report shows the cost - profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends: The report shows the historical trends of national new power generation capacity, power generation composition, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar power generation [64][67][70].