大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The main logic is the tight supply - demand balance and emotional swings caused by news. The main bullish factors are the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. The main bearish factor is the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline. The expected price of lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 107,660 - 111,780 [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,998 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.26%, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in December 2025 will be 98,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00% [8]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 103,658 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,524 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrates is 104,486 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.38%, resulting in a loss of - 8,298 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 99,792 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.93%, resulting in a loss of - 6,028 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On December 19, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 97,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 13,850 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.58%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.58%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93%, higher than the historical average [8]. - Market: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The net short position of the main position decreased [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of most lithium - related products showed an upward trend. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.45%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.52% [14]. - Supply - Demand Data: The supply - side data shows that the weekly operating rate was 83.52%, remaining unchanged. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 95,350 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.35%. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,880.69 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.86%. The demand - side data shows that the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 412,850 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.69%, and the monthly export volume was 5,476,869 kg, a year - on - year increase of 77.13% [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. The production of lithium spodumene mines in China has shown an upward trend in recent years, and the total production of domestic lithium mica has also increased [25]. - Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrates has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed over time [25]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has fluctuated. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a shortage [28]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, and the production has shown an upward trend in general. The production is mainly from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lakes, and recycling materials [31]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate has increased, and the main import sources are Chile and Argentina [31]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a shortage [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and the production has increased. The production comes from the smelting and causticizing ends [40]. - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has increased over the years [40]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a shortage [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Purchased Raw Materials: The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrates, lithium mica concentrates, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have fluctuated. Generally, there have been losses in some cases [46][48]. - Processing Cost and Profit: The processing cost and profit of lithium compounds such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have also changed over time [46][48][51]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate have fluctuated. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other parties have different trends [53]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide has also changed, with different trends for smelters and downstream [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Battery Price and Loading Volume: The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated, and the monthly loading volume of power batteries has increased [57]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has increased over the years [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and the cost - profit situation has also changed. The capacity utilization rate has fluctuated, and the production has increased [66]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a shortage [69]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of ternary materials has fluctuated, and the cost - profit situation has also changed. The weekly operating rate has fluctuated, and the production has increased [72]. - Export and Import: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed over time [74]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium has fluctuated, and the cost - profit situation has also changed. The monthly operating rates of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have fluctuated, and the production has increased [76]. - Export: The monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has increased over the years [79]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles have increased over the years. The sales penetration rate has also increased [84]. - Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index: The retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles have changed, and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have also fluctuated [88].