大越期货尿素早报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with current daily production and operating rates stabilizing, comprehensive inventory declining, and a clear de - stocking pattern. Agricultural and industrial demand are mainly on - demand, and the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. There is a large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports. Recently, export quota enterprises have mostly completed container loading, leading to a short - term decline in export demand. Although the Indian tender news announced this week boosted the futures market, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The UR2605 contract basis is - 7, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.4%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 131.8 million tons (-4.0), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rates are stable, comprehensive inventory is falling with an obvious de - stocking trend. Agricultural and industrial demand are on - demand, compound fertilizer and melamine operating rates are stable. Export demand is short - term down, but the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The UR2605 contract basis is - 7, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.4%, bearish [4]. - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 131.8 million tons (-4.0), bearish [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - Expectation: The UR main contract will fluctuate, industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is de - stocking, short - term export demand is down, and the domestic oversupply is still significant. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - Positive Factors: Inventory is being de - stocked [5]. - Negative Factors: The domestic market is oversupplied, and daily production continues to reach new highs [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1690 (+10), Shandong spot is 1710 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1690 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2729 [6]. | | Futures Market | The 05 contract price is 1697 (-11), the basis is - 7 (+21), UR01 is 1652 (-5), UR05 is 1697 (-11), and UR09 is 1678 (-22) [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 10976 (-201), UR comprehensive inventory is 131.8 million tons (-4.0), UR factory inventory is 118.0 million tons (-5.5), and UR port inventory is 13.8 million tons (+1.5) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] |