《能源化工》日报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Natural Rubber: With geopolitical tensions affecting supply in Thailand and domestic产区 entering the off - season, there is support at the bottom of rubber prices. However, due to high production and sales pressure and the seasonal demand slump, the market is weak. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely between 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Glass and Soda Ash: For soda ash, the supply may increase with the potential output from new projects, and demand is shrinking, so the price is expected to continue to decline with occasional technical rebounds. For glass, the spot price is stable but facing weakening demand in the north and high inventory in the middle - stream, so the futures price may be under pressure and continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: The caustic soda industry still has supply - demand pressure, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is affected by high supply, low demand, and cost pressure, and is expected to maintain range - bound trading and then weaken after a rebound [4]. - Polyolefins: The market is trading on the expectation of high production in 2026 and weak current conditions. Both PE and PP are facing downward pressure on prices, with the price center expected to decline further [6]. - Methanol: Although the port may face inventory accumulation in December, there is an expected shift to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland market is expected to be stable with prices fluctuating slightly [10]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The short - term driving force for pure benzene is weak due to weak downstream demand and cost support, but there is an expectation of improvement after the spring maintenance. Styrene is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton due to sufficient supply and weak cost support [13]. - LPG: The LPG market shows a pattern of stable prices, inventory reduction, and some improvement in downstream demand. The price is expected to be relatively stable with some fluctuations [15]. - Polyester Industry Chain: For PX, it may continue to be strong unless there is substantial production reduction in the polyester sector. PTA is expected to follow the raw material price with limited independent movement. MEG is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - fiber prices follow the raw material, and the processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to be compressed [17]. - Crude Oil: The market is dominated by geopolitical factors. With high supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the price of Brent crude at $60 per barrel [18]. - Urea: The futures price is weak, while the spot price is rising. The Indian tender is beneficial for exports, but high supply and weak demand in the domestic market lead to a difficult price trend. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - Price and Spread: The prices of Yunnan state - owned rubber, Thai - standard mixed rubber, etc. have decreased. The basis and inter - contract spreads have also changed. For example, the all - milk basis decreased by 25.93% [1]. - Production and Supply: Thailand's production decreased slightly in October, while India's increased. China's production decreased. The opening rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, and tire production and exports increased in November [1]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Spread: The prices of glass and soda ash in different regions were mostly stable, with some futures prices decreasing. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. - Supply: The soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, while the melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [3]. - Inventory: The glass inventory increased slightly, the soda ash factory inventory increased slightly, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - Real Estate Data: The new construction area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Price and Spread: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the V - basis increased by 2600% [4]. - Supply and Demand: The caustic soda industry's supply - demand pressure remains, and the PVC industry has high supply and low demand. The opening rates of related industries changed slightly [4]. - Inventory: The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory increased while the total social inventory decreased [4]. Polyolefins - Price and Spread: The prices of LLDPE, PP futures and spot decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the LP01 spread decreased by 39.39% [6]. - Inventory and Production: The PE and PP enterprise inventories and social inventories changed, and the device opening rates of PE and PP also changed [6]. Methanol - Price and Spread: The prices of methanol futures and spot decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the MA15 spread increased by 23.81% [8]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [9]. - Production and Supply: The upstream and downstream opening rates of methanol changed slightly [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Price and Spread: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures and spot changed slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 0.3% [13]. - Inventory and Production: The pure benzene inventory remained unchanged, and the opening rates of related industries decreased [13]. LPG - Price and Spread: The prices of LPG futures and spot changed slightly, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.83% [15]. - Inventory and Production: The LPG refinery inventory ratio remained stable, the port inventory decreased, and the upstream and downstream opening rates changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - Price and Spread: The prices of upstream raw materials such as PX and downstream polyester products changed. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed. For example, the PX - naphtha spread increased by 12.4% [17]. - Inventory and Production: The MEG port inventory increased, and the opening rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the Brent - WTI spread increased by 3.40% [18]. - Refined Oil: The prices of refined oil products such as RBOB, ULSD, and Gasoil changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [18]. Urea - Price and Spread: The futures price of urea decreased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts changed. The spot price increased [20]. - Inventory and Production: The urea production is at a high level, the factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [20].