大越期货白糖早报-20251222

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The sugar market in the 2025/26 season is expected to have a global supply surplus, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus volume [4][9]. - The current downward trend of the sugar main contract 05 is approaching the end, and there is an increased risk of short - selling at the current position. After continuous declines, there may be a short - term oversold rebound [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, DATAGRO reduces the surplus forecast from 280 tons to 100 tons, Czarnikow raises it to 740 tons, and StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; in October, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,370 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 282 yuan, showing a premium over the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of October, the industrial inventory in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [6]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include an increase in syrup tariffs and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new season, a drop in foreign sugar prices below 15 cents per pound, and an increase in import pressure due to the opening of the import profit window [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 2025/26 season. StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons because global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153,000 tons as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [33]. - Domestic Sugar Market Data: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - cane and sugar - beet planting areas, yields, and sugar production in China are expected to change. The import volume in 2025/26 is expected to be 5 million tons, consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is expected to be 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [35]. - Import Cost: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) was about 5,086 yuan per ton, with good import profits due to the continuous decline in international sugar prices [38]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.