大越期货豆粕早报-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report presents views on both the soybean and soybean meal markets. For soybean meal M2605, it is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780. The market is influenced by factors such as the US soybean's movement, China's soybean procurement, and South American soybean planting weather. The short - term outlook is for a weakening oscillation. For soybean A2605, it is expected to fluctuate between 4040 and 4140, with the market affected by similar factors and also by the domestic soybean's rotation storage and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans compared to imported ones [9][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780, and soybean A2605 between 4040 and 4140 [9][11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the inventory of soybeans at oil mills remained high. South American soybean planting and growth weather is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to an oscillating range. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded from a low level in December, supporting the price of soybean meal. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the rebound in soybean meal demand has led to an oscillating pattern [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is a short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in December remained high; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest [15]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price of domestic soybeans [16]. - Bearish factors: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From December 11th to 19th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 - 3138 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 3.55 - 17.5 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 - 2520 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.1 million tons on December 15th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 610 - 631 yuan/ton [17]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data: From December 12th to 19th, the prices of soybean futures and soybean meal futures generally showed a downward trend, while the spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal were relatively stable, with the spot price of soybean meal showing a slight downward trend [19]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From December 10th to 19th, the number of soybean No.1 warehouse receipts decreased from 16664 to 16673, the number of soybean No.2 warehouse receipts decreased from 7100 to 2900, and the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased from 23830 to 24830 [21]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in factors such as harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [32][33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026, including data on planting rate, harvest rate, emergence rate, and excellent - good rate [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May to December 2025 show the changes in factors such as planting area, yield per unit, output, and ending inventory of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 5. Position Data - For both soybean meal M2605 and soybean A2605, the short positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [9][11]. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase [47]. - The inventory of soybeans at oil mills remained high, while the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level [48]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills rebounded to a high level, indicating an increase in stocking demand [50]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the output of soybean meal in October increased year - on - year [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the margin on the disk fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [55]. - The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly [59]. - The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [61].