大越期货白糖周报-20251222

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Sugar prices continued to hit new lows this week, with the 05 main contract approaching the 5000 mark. The decline is nearing its end, and there is a short - term oversold rebound possibility. The risk of short - selling at the current position has increased [4][5][8]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include increased syrup tariffs and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices below 15 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - Sugar prices continued to decline this week. The 05 main contract reached around the 5000 mark. Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus, with ISO predicting 163 million tons, DATAGRO reducing the forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow increasing it to 740 million tons, and StoneX predicting 370 million tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and in October, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The sugar main 05 contract is accelerating towards the bottom, and the current position has a high risk of short - selling. After continuous decline, there may be a short - term oversold rebound [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information is provided for this part. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bullish factors: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a gap, which is decreasing in the medium - long term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700 yuan/ton. Since January 2025, the import tariff of syrup has increased, close to the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. Trump approved the modification of the cola formula, which is long - term bullish for sugar [8]. - Bearish factors: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. Green Pool predicts that the global sugar production will increase by 5.3% in the 25/26 season, reaching 199.1 million tons. USDA predicts that the global sugar production will increase by 4.7% and consumption will increase by 1.4% in the 25/26 season, with a surplus of 11.397 million tons [8]. - Supply - demand data: The supply - demand situation of the 25/26 season is predicted by different institutions. StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth. ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%. Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [32]. - Production - related data: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sown and harvested areas of sugar crops, yields per hectare, and sugar production are presented. In 2025/26, the sown and harvested areas of sugar crops are 1.439 million hectares, the yield per hectare is 59.7 tons, and the sugar production is 11.7 million tons. The import volume is predicted to be 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is an increase of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton [34]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided for this part.