大越期货菜粕早报-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2300 - 2360. The market has returned to a state of oscillation, awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. The short - term market is affected by soybean meal and will maintain an oscillating pattern. The final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed still has variables, and the domestic rapeseed meal has entered the off - season of supply and demand, so it will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal futures oscillate and decline, and the spot price fluctuates accordingly. The spot premium remains at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract narrows slightly. The arrival of imported rapeseed increases slightly in December, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains at zero [18][20][23][25][27]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the weakening demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and the domestic supply is expected to decrease. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has found it to be established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling result is still variable. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still intensify, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills has no pressure. Bearish factors: the domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports still has variables, with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Trading Data: From December 11th to 19th, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 - 3138 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 3.55 - 17.5 tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2490 - 2520 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.1 tons on December 15th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 610 - 631 yuan/ton [13]. - Futures and Spot Price: From December 11th to 19th, the price of the near - month 2601 rapeseed meal futures fluctuated between 2389 - 2419 yuan/ton, and the price of the main 2605 contract fluctuated between 2323 - 2359 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) fluctuated between 2490 - 2520 yuan/ton [15]. - Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From December 10th to 19th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - Aquatic Product Data: The price of aquatic fish has declined slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the text