大越期货燃料油周报-20251222

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and fuel oil prices also followed the same pattern. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,415 yuan/ton, up 0.42% for the week, while low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,932 yuan/ton, down 2.01% for the week [3]. - Due to poor arbitrage economics in the early stage, the arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in December is expected to decline for the first time in three months, providing some support for the low-sulfur fuel oil market. However, recent chartering activities may cause the inflow of arbitrage goods to rebound again in January, and the Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to remain well-supplied throughout January and possibly extend to February. Although the ample immediate supply continues to drag down the Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market, the good downstream marine fuel demand provides some support for the market fundamentals [3]. - Despite the unfeasibility of East-West arbitrage due to high freight rates, the arbitrage arrival volume in Singapore from the Western market in December is expected to decrease. However, the significant inventory accumulation in November, combined with the considerable supply from the Middle East in recent weeks, will keep the Asian fuel oil market well-supplied throughout December and January. On the demand side, downstream marine bunkering activities are relatively stable. In addition, the decline in high-sulfur fuel oil cracking margins may boost the demand for high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials from Asian refineries in the next few months. Attention should be paid to the impact of China's announced crude oil import quota for 2026 on raw material demand. In the short term, the prices of FU and LU will fluctuate repeatedly following oil prices. Attention should be paid to the potential boost from geopolitical events. Operationally, for high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term operations should be conducted in the range of 2,350 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and for low-sulfur fuel oil, short-term operations should be conducted in the range of 2,900 - 3,050 yuan/ton [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - The price trends of crude oil and fuel oil last week were first falling and then rising. The prices and weekly changes of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil are given, and the supply and demand situations of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in the Asian market are analyzed. The short-term price trends and operational suggestions for FU and LU are also provided [3][4]. 2. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: The data of the previous and current values, price changes, and change amplitudes of the FU and LU main contracts are presented. The FU main contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18%, and the LU main contract decreased by 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84% [5]. - Spot Prices: The data of the previous and current values, price changes, and change amplitudes of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East, as well as Singapore diesel, are provided. Among them, the prices of Zhoushan high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils decreased, while the prices of Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils, Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel increased [6]. 3. Fundamental Data - Consumption Data: Line charts of Singapore fuel oil consumption, China fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking gross profit from 2021 - 2025 are presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [7][8][9]. 4. Inventory Data - Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory: The inventory and its changes from October 8 to December 17 are given. As of December 17, the inventory was 22.559 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [10]. - Inventory Trends: Line charts of Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends are presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [11][12]. 5. Spread Data - A line chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread is presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [14].