建信期货豆粕日报-20251222

1. Industry - The report focuses on the soybean meal industry [1] 2. Date - The report is dated December 22, 2025 [2] 3. Research Team - The agricultural product research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 4. Market Review 4.1 Futures Contract Quotes - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3054, opening at 3049, reaching a high of 3052, a low of 3022, and closing at 3043, down 11 or -0.36%. The trading volume was 216,053, the open interest was 298,537, with a decrease of 88,955 [6] - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3007, opening at 3008, reaching a high of 3011, a low of 2992, and closing at 3006, down 1 or -0.03%. The trading volume was 103,015, the open interest was 644,846, with a decrease of 4,047 [6] - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2745, opening at 2745, reaching a high of 2748, a low of 2726, and closing at 2735, down 10 or -0.36%. The trading volume was 645,772, the open interest was 2,116,090, with a decrease of 1,374 [6] 4.2 External Market Situation - The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. The main US soybean contract on the external market continued to fall this week, dropping to 1060 cents [6] - The market is mainly focused on US soybean exports and the performance of new crops in South America. As of mid - December, China has purchased over 7.65 million tons of US soybeans, and it is not difficult to complete the previously claimed 12 million tons of purchases. However, other countries have reduced their purchases of US soybeans and shifted more to Brazil, resulting in US soybean export sales being nearly 40% lower than the same period last year [6] - In South America, the new crop situation is generally bearish. Brazilian soybeans are gradually entering the critical growing period, with sufficient rainfall in most major producing states, and the expected rainfall in the main producing areas in the next two weeks is still abundant. If this trend continues after January, Brazil is likely to have a bumper harvest. In Argentina, although it was dry in the early stage, it is still in the late sowing period, not yet in the critical weather - sensitive growth stage, and the rainfall has improved in the next two weeks [6] 4.3 Domestic Market Situation - The increase in the frequency of auctions makes it difficult for the domestic soybean meal spot market to be in short supply, and the current soybean inventory at ports is still at a relatively high level, with overall limited bullish factors. In the short term, domestic soybean meal futures are expected to be weaker than the external market and may have a need to catch up with the decline. Potential bullish factors include changes in South American weather and USDA's output adjustment in January, but there is currently no driving force [6] 5. Industry News - In the 2025/26 season, the soybean planting area in Rio Grande do Sul, a major oilseed - producing state in Brazil, has reached 76% of the estimated 6.74 million hectares, lower than 80% in the same period last year and the historical average of 84% due to dry weather during the planting period. However, the average yield per unit area is still expected to be 3180 kg/ha, a significant increase compared to the drought - affected previous year of 2009 kg/ha [7][9] - As of December 11, 2025, the soybean planting rate in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 58%, up from 49% last week and lower than 66% in the same period last year [9] 6. Data Overview - The report provides data on various aspects such as the spread between soybean meal contracts, exchange rates, and prices, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13]