贵金属日评-20251222

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the weak US employment and inflation data in November, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has re - emerged, which suppresses the US dollar index and stimulates the precious metals market. The precious metals prices are still likely to rise. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's trading limit measures on platinum and palladium futures aim to cool down the surging industrial precious metals market. The precious metals sector will continue to be strong in the near future [4]. - In the medium - term, the global political and economic system restructuring and abundant monetary liquidity will support the gold price to continue rising in 2026, but Trump 2.0's new policies and the decline in Sino - US game intensity will limit the upward momentum. It is expected that the London gold price will reach $4800 - 5000 per ounce in 2026. Silver, with stronger industrial attributes and higher volatility, will gain more upward momentum, and the London silver price is expected to reach $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce, with the gold - silver ratio dropping to around 65. Platinum's consumption and investment demand substitution for gold and silver will continue, and the London platinum price is expected to reach $2000 - 2100 per ounce, with the gold - platinum ratio dropping to around 2.4. Palladium will basically follow the gold's trend, with an annual target of $1620 - 1700 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market and Outlook - Intraday Market: The weak US employment and inflation data in November have led to the re - emergence of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, which has suppressed the US dollar index and stimulated the precious metals market. The precious metals prices are still likely to rise. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's trading limit measures on platinum and palladium futures aim to cool down the market. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - biased trading strategy, and short - hedgers should reduce their positions. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US economic, employment, and inflation situations on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [4]. - Domestic Precious Metals Market Data: The previous closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, percentage change, open interest, and change in open interest of domestic precious metals contracts such as Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Guangzhou Platinum Index, and Guangzhou Palladium Index are provided [5]. - Medium - term Market: The global political and economic system restructuring and abundant monetary liquidity will support the gold price to continue rising in 2026, but Trump 2.0's new policies and the decline in Sino - US game intensity will limit the upward momentum. Silver will gain more upward momentum, and the gold - silver ratio will drop. Platinum's consumption and investment demand substitution for gold and silver will continue, and the gold - platinum ratio will drop. Palladium will basically follow the gold's trend. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - biased trading strategy, short - hedgers reduce the hedging ratio, and conservative investors can consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on silver and platinum and short on gold [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US: The US consumer price index (CPI) growth has slowed down, partly due to the 43 - day federal government shutdown, which postponed data collection. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that if the current CPI trend continues, it will help open the door for further interest - rate cuts next year. The number of initial jobless claims decreased by 13,000 in the week ending December 13, indicating a stable labor market in December [17]. - Europe: The European Central Bank kept its policy interest rate unchanged and raised some growth and inflation forecasts, likely closing the door to further borrowing cost cuts in the near future. The ECB still believes that the inflation rate will be below 2% in 2026 and 2027, mainly due to falling energy costs, but expects it to return to the target level in 2028. The ECB's economic growth forecasts are 1.4% for this year, 1.2% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027 and 2028 [17]. - UK: The Bank of England's policymakers passed a rate - cut resolution by a narrow majority, but hinted that the pace of future rate cuts may slow down. Five members voted to cut the benchmark interest rate from 4% to 3.75%, while four members supported keeping the rate unchanged due to concerns about high inflation. Governor Bailey changed his stance and voted for the rate cut, breaking the deadlock [18]. - India: India announced on Thursday evening that it has imposed a five - year anti - dumping duty on cold - rolled steel from China, with the duty ranging from $223.8 to $414.9 per ton [18].