瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [2] - The overall inventory in Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, but the overall inventory accumulation rate has decreased by 0.73 percentage points month - on - month [2] - The demand side is in the seasonal off - season, tire companies' production capacity utilization is weakly operating, the overall shipment rhythm is slow, finished product inventory is rising, and some companies have production suspension and limitation phenomena [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,205 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 30 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,355 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 147,758 lots, with a daily increase of 2,103 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 54,992 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,610 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 38,894 lots, with a daily increase of 608 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 14,626 lots, with a daily decrease of 8 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 88,730 tons, with a daily increase of 1,570 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 58,364 tons, with a daily decrease of 604 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 US dollars/ton [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,470 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,420 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,200 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,900 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 340 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 720 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,952 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 104 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 592 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 9 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 2.4 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 51.4 US dollars/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, with an increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, with a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.13%, with a decrease of 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.44%, with a decrease of 0.13 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 41.91 days, with an increase of 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.48 days, with an increase of 0.97 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.1%, with a daily increase of 0.35 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.67%, with a daily increase of 0.07 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.59%, with a daily decrease of 0.59 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.59%, with a daily decrease of 0.58 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [2] - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory is 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory is 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 3.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.02 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased [2] - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2]