瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a trend where the main contract is oscillating stronger. The fundamentals are in a stage of increasing supply and stable high - level demand. The industry inventory is continuously decreasing, and the outlook is positive. In the options market, the sentiment is bearish with a slightly rising implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The trading strategy is to trade lightly with a slightly stronger oscillation and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 114,380 yuan/ton, up 2980 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 146,949 hands, up 8070 hands; the position of the main contract is 671,889 hands, up 3060 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,580 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZFE are 16,411 hands/ton, up 900 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 99,000 yuan/ton, up 1350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 96,350 yuan/ton, up 1300 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 15,380 yuan/ton, down 1630 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 1320 US dollars; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone is 12,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,575 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2450 tons; the monthly import volume is 22,055.19 tons, down 1825.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged. The monthly output of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate (daily) is 37,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 346,600 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary materials (811 type) in China is 167,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (622 power type) in China is 148,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) in China is 159,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 40,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 63%, down 1%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,880,000 units, up 108,000 units; the monthly sales are 1,823,000 units, up 108,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 47.48%, up 0.74%; the cumulative sales are 14,780,000 units, up 3,518,000 units; the monthly export volume is 300,000 units, up 44,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 2.315 million units, up 1.174 million units [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total holding of call options is 113,809 contracts, down 5198; the total holding of put options is 141,148 contracts, up 13,277; the put - call ratio of total holdings is 124.02%, up 16.5735%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.40%, up 0.0170% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In November 2025, China imported 22,055 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 15%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 219,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. In November, China exported 759 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 209% and a year - on - year increase of 248%. From January to November, the cumulative export was 4378 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.6% [2] - In November 2025, China's spodumene import volume reached 729,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 12%, equivalent to about 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia was the main source of incremental imports, with 425,000 tons imported in that month, a significant month - on - month increase of 44%, accounting for 58% of the total import [2] - In November 2025, China's lithium hydroxide export volume was 3357 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17% and a year - on - year decrease of 39%. Exports to South Korea and Japan accounted for 87% of the total export volume. In November, China imported 1420 tons of lithium hydroxide, a month - on - month increase of 11% [2] - The resumption of production at Ningde Times' Yichun Jianxiawo lithium mine has new progress. On December 19, the Yichun Tendering Network in Jiangxi Province released the first environmental impact assessment information publicity for the mining project of the lithium mine [2]