瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20251222

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a view of "oscillating on the upside with attention to risk control" for the RB2605 contract of rebar [2]. 2. Core View - On Monday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated strongly. Macroscopically, the State Council executive meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference, requiring to accelerate the formulation of specific implementation plans and ensure a good start for the "14th Five - Year Plan". In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased slightly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 39.83% and an expanding year - on - year decline; apparent demand increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. Overall, in the off - season of consumption, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, but the rebound of furnace materials raises the cost. Coupled with low production and low inventory of rebar, it supports the steel price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis with a stable red column [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,126 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the trading volume is 1,591,974 lots, up 23,108 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 9,538 lots, down 20,860 lots; the spread between RB1 - 5 contracts is 2 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the SHFE is 82,284 tons, unchanged; the spread between HC2605 - RB2605 contracts is 151 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,415 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,510 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract is 204 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 797 yuan/wet ton, up 1 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 155.0814 million tons, up 0.8028 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 517,800 tons, up 18,200 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3358 million tons, down 16,400 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.1313 million tons, up 14,800 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.45%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 84.91%, down 0.99 percentage points. The output of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.8168 million tons, up 29,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 39.83%, up 0.64 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.3954 million tons, down 12,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.13 million tons, down 257,000 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output is 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar is 1.434 million tons, up 59,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 948,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is - 2.60%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion is - 15.90%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is - 1.10%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.56066 billion square meters, down 31.27 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 534.57 million square meters, down 43.95 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 393.61 million square meters, up 2.84 million square meters [2]. f. Industry News - The third round of the fifth batch of 10 central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams were stationed in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and 5 central enterprises from November 16 - 19, 2025, and carried out special inspections on the ecological and environmental protection of the Grand Canal in 8 provinces and cities, and recently completed the on - site inspection stage. On December 19, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin proposed a third - round price cut for coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton cut for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton cut for dry - quenched coke, to be implemented at zero o'clock on December 22, 2025, and it is expected that the third - round price cut for coke will be fully implemented on Monday [2].