铂钯金期货日报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Today, the platinum and palladium futures main contracts both hit the daily limit. Persistent physical spot shortages and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly increased the price elasticity of platinum and palladium recently. The London platinum lease rate continues to rise, and palladium ETF holdings continue to increase, exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction. High domestic - foreign price differentials have spurred arbitrage motives, pushing up spot prices and amplifying futures price elasticity. In the medium to long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit pattern, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support prices. The parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may lead to a short - term correction risk due to basis repair needs. The weekly resistance and support levels for London platinum spot are $2100/ounce and $1800/ounce respectively, and for London palladium spot are $1800/ounce and $1500/ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 568.45 yuan/gram, up 37.15 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 508.45 yuan/gram, up 33.25 yuan. The platinum main contract's open interest is 10387 hands, down 277 hands; the palladium main contract's open interest is 3179 hands, up 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 533.57 yuan/gram, up 21.92 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 429 yuan/gram, unchanged. The platinum main contract's basis is - 34.88 yuan/gram, down 15.23 yuan; the palladium main contract's basis is - 79.45 yuan/gram, down 33.25 yuan. The weekly non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC are 9966 contracts, down 243 contracts; those of palladium are 3003 contracts, down 342 contracts [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.72, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, up 0.04%. The VIX volatility index is 14.91, down 1.96 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset agrees with Goolsbee that there is still sufficient room for interest - rate cuts. Trump hopes the Fed Chairman can make an independent judgment, and Trump's aides will discuss housing policies in Florida and are expected to announce a "major" housing plan soon. Fed's Harker prefers to keep interest rates stable before spring, suggests the neutral rate is higher than commonly thought, and opposes near - term interest - rate cuts due to concerns about high inflation. New York Fed President Williams says there is no urgency to cut interest rates again, strengthening the market's expectation of a short - term pause in rate cuts. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 21%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 79%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 47.1%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 43.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 9.5% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On December 22 at 23:00, the US PCE price index month - on - month; on December 23 at 21:30, the US GDP deflator quarter - on - quarter; on December 24 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims [2].