野村东方国际：日本央行加息的背景、展望及影响

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Japanese economy, suggesting a shift from extreme monetary easing to a neutral interest rate, with expectations of further policy adjustments in the future [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Japan's economy is gradually recovering, with inflation nearing the 2% target, prompting the Bank of Japan to end its ultra-loose monetary policy [1][4]. - The market has largely priced in the December interest rate hike, and the yen depreciated post-hike, but concerns about the Bank of Japan lagging behind have been alleviated [1][4]. - The government's proactive fiscal expansion policy, while increasing debt pressure, is deemed manageable without triggering systemic shocks [1][4][6]. - The likelihood of significant market disruption from the interest rate hike is low due to effective communication from the Bank of Japan and the distinct nature of this rate hike compared to previous instances [1][5]. Summary by Sections Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy - Japan's potential economic growth is expected to remain above 0.5%, supported by fiscal stimulus measures projected to boost GDP by approximately 0.3% in the first half of 2026 [2][4]. - Core inflation is anticipated to gradually rise back to near 2%, despite a potential temporary dip below this threshold in early 2026 [2][4][7]. Market Reactions and Financial Institutions - The banking sector has outperformed the Tokyo Stock Exchange index, benefiting from improved core profitability and low credit costs, despite facing unrealized losses from rising bond yields [2][21]. - Japanese financial institutions are expected to manage risks effectively, reducing the likelihood of systemic risks despite holding significant amounts of government bonds [6][19]. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The new government's fiscal policy is characterized as "active but responsible," focusing on balancing economic growth with debt sustainability [18][15]. - Short-term interest payment pressures are manageable, but long-term risks are significant, with projections indicating that new interest payments could match current social security expenditures by 2034 [16][13]. Global Market Implications - The interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is expected to have a controlled impact on both the domestic financial system and global markets, with particular attention on the divergence between Japan's monetary policy and anticipated U.S. rate cuts in 2026 [23][24]. - The potential for Japanese institutions to sell U.S. Treasuries and repatriate funds is limited due to varying investment strategies among different types of institutions [11][12].