《农产品》日报-20251223
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-23 00:52
  1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may rebound further and attempt to return above 4,000 ringgit, potentially reaching 4,100 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures face resistance around 8,500 yuan [1]. - US interception of Venezuelan oil - tankers boosts soybean oil, but its industrial use may decline, with limited upside for CBOT soybean oil before Christmas. In China, the approaching Spring Festival备货 may support the domestic futures market [1]. - Some short - term bearish funds in rapeseed oil are closing positions before Christmas, causing a rebound. However, the overall sentiment is bearish, with limited upward potential and resistance at 9,000 yuan [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - Spot prices are stable, and demand for curing around the Winter Solstice has increased. The slaughter cycle is longer this year, with normal - to - fast slaughter progress and increased demand. The futures price is expected to be supported around 11,000 [3][4]. Meal and Grains - South American soybean harvest is expected to be high, which will put pressure on US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal market remains loose, with limited downside and no clear upward drivers. Attention should be paid to the performance around 2,750 [9]. Dates - Spot sales and cost support are weak. Futures prices are under pressure due to expectations of oversupply. If the Spring Festival consumption is strong, the futures price may rebound slightly; otherwise, it will remain under pressure [12]. Apples - Current sales in production areas are slow, and inventory reduction is slow. The market sentiment may improve during the festival. It is recommended to close long positions opportunistically [15][19]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short - term, the terminal inventory has slightly improved. The corn futures may remain weak, but the decline is limited. Attention should be paid to the selling sentiment and policy releases [22]. Cotton - Internationally, US cotton may fluctuate in the short - term. Domestically, supply pressure is easing, supporting cotton prices. Demand from downstream textile mills is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in a relatively strong range with limited upward momentum [25][26]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production is contracting, but Indian sugar production is abundant. The market lacks positive factors, and it is expected to remain weak and volatile next week. Short positions can be considered on rebounds [29]. Eggs - The supply - demand contradiction has been marginally alleviated, but the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern remains. The market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [31][32]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: On December 19, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan, down 1.79% from the previous day. The futures price (Y2605) was 7,952 yuan, down 1.05%. The basis was 288 yuan, down 18.64% [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,250 yuan on December 19, down 1.79%. The futures price (P2605) was 8,280 yuan, down 0.93%. The basis was - 30 yuan, down 171.43%. The import cost increased by 0.71%, and the import profit decreased by 31.59% [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,270 yuan on December 19, down 2.42%. The futures price (OI605) was 8,929 yuan, down 2.33%. The basis was 341 yuan, down 4.75% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - Futures: The main - contract basis was 305 yuan, down 28.24%. The price of Live Hogs 2605 was 11,905 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of Live Hogs 2603 was 11,345 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [3]. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with an overall stable situation. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.19%, and the self - breeding and purchased - pig breeding profits increased [3][4]. Meal and Grains - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,100 yuan, unchanged. The futures price (M2605) was 2,741 yuan, up 0.22%. The basis was 359 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan, up 1.68%. The futures price (RM2605) was 2,337 yuan, up 0.60%. The basis was 83 yuan, up 45.61% [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main - contract of Soybean No.1 was 4,105 yuan, up 1.31%. The basis was - 165 yuan, down 47.32% [9]. Dates - Futures: The price of Jujube 2601 was 8,695 yuan/ton, down 0.74%. The price of Jujube 2605 (main - contract) was 8,820 yuan/ton, down 0.84%. The price of Jujube 2609 was 9,100 yuan/ton, down 1.14% [12]. - Spot: The spot prices of different grades in Cangzhou showed a downward or stable trend, with the basis of special - grade and first - grade dates strengthening [12]. Apples - Futures: The price of Apple 2605 (main - contract) was 9,149 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The basis was - 949 yuan, up 50 yuan [15]. - Spot: The arrival volume at some fruit markets was stable or slightly increased, and the national cold - storage inventory remained unchanged [15]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The price of Corn 2603 was 2,192 yuan, unchanged. The Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port was 2,280 yuan, down 0.44%. The basis was 88 yuan, down 10.20% [22]. - Corn Starch: The price of Corn Starch 2603 was 2,484 yuan, down 0.32%. The spot prices in Changchun and Weifang were stable. The basis was 86 yuan, up 10.26% [22]. Cotton - Futures: The price of Cotton 2605 was 14,070 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The price of Cotton 2601 was 14,130 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The ICE US cotton main - contract was 63.61 cents/pound, down 0.06% [25]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14,986 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The CC Index: 3128B was 15,154 yuan/ton, up 0.06% [25]. Sugar - Futures: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5,225 yuan/ton, up 0.93%. The price of Sugar 2605 was 2,126 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract was 15.00 cents/pound, up 1.01% [29]. - Spot: The spot price in Nanning was 5,270 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The spot price in Kunming was 5,195 yuan/ton, down 0.29% [29]. Eggs - Futures: The price of Egg 01 contract was 3,049 yuan/500KG, down 0.91%. The price of Egg 02 contract was 2,888 yuan/500KG, up 0.07% [31]. - Spot: The egg - producing area price was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 2.39%. The basis was - 75 yuan/500KG, down 49.14% [31].