《能源化工》日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The methanol futures market was volatile and slightly weaker, with the basis slightly weakening and overall trading volume being average. - In December, the port arrivals of methanol were still high, but due to gas restrictions and device failures in Iran, a large amount of production capacity was shut down, and the expectation of reduced imports in the far - month significantly increased. Although there was still inventory accumulation pressure at the port in December, the supply - demand balance sheet was expected to shift to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. - In the inland areas, the transfer price in Inner Mongolia decreased month - on - month, mainly affected by high production and factory inventory accumulation. The supply was expected to remain stable due to the repair of enterprise profits from falling coal prices, and the demand from traditional downstream industries increased slightly, with new MTO capacity being put into operation. The inland supply - demand pattern was expected to be stable, and the price would fluctuate within a narrow range [3]. Polyolefins - The polyolefin market was characterized by high production in 2026 and weak current conditions. The market was short - sold, and in 2026, the market was expected to face both lower costs and compressed profits, with the price center moving further down. - For PP, supply increased while demand decreased, the valuation of marginal devices was still low, and inventory slightly decreased. For PE, both supply and demand were weak, and some full - density devices switched from LL to HD production, with the marginal supply of standard products decreasing [6]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the geopolitical tension between Thailand and Cambodia had not eased, affecting the local raw material supply in Thailand, and the domestic production areas were accelerating into the off - season, providing bottom support for rubber prices. - On the demand side, the resumption of work in some enterprises supported the overall capacity utilization rate, but due to increasing production and sales pressure, enterprises would maintain production control in the short term. - In the market, some agents replenished inventory moderately to meet annual targets, but it was the seasonal off - season for demand, and the actual market trading was mainly based on rigid demand. The market continued to operate weakly. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the off - season demand limited the upward space for rubber prices. The rubber price was expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The spot price continued to weaken. The demand from the float glass end decreased significantly due to the cold repair of multiple production lines, and the photovoltaic end continued to develop. The supply was expected to increase with the trial production of Yuanxing's second - phase project, and the overall demand for soda ash was in a contraction pattern. The price was in a downward trend, and after a technical rebound in the recent period, a short - selling strategy after the rebound was recommended [9]. - Glass: The northern demand decreased significantly, and the mid - and downstream purchasers slowed down their procurement and focused on consuming their own inventory. Some northwest manufacturers had set winter - storage prices, and some mid - and downstream players started winter - storage. The southern region still had some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, the market was concerned about the sustainability of future demand. The high inventory in the trading and futures - cash sectors also pressured the spot price, and the futures market was expected to face further pressure [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The supply - demand situation still faced some pressure. Although some regional enterprises reduced their inventory and some downstream buyers were more active, the inventory level was still high, and there was no obvious positive news in the short term. The price was expected to be weak in the next week, especially in the East China region where supply was expected to increase [10]. - PVC: The supply pressure remained this week, but the market rebounded due to the shutdown of overseas devices. The operating rate was expected to decline slightly next week. Both domestic and foreign demand were under pressure, and the demand in the off - season was weak. The cost support was expected to weaken, and the PVC market was expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The domestic petroleum benzene supply was stable, but the supply increased due to the restart of many hydro - benzene devices, and the port inventory was at a high level. The overall demand from downstream industries decreased slightly. In the short term, the supply - demand situation was weak, and the cost support from crude oil was limited. However, the spring maintenance plan was gradually released, and the price might be boosted in the short term but with limited upside potential. The BZ2603 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [11]. - Styrene: The industry profit improved, and some maintenance devices restarted, increasing the overall supply. The downstream industry profit was compressed, and the terminal demand was weak. The inventory of styrene - benzene increased, but some East China factories had export transactions. The price was boosted by the short - term rebound of crude oil and the rise of PX, but there was an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the cost support was limited. The rebound space was expected to be limited [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In the short term, the supply was high supported by short - process production, and the maintenance plan might be postponed if the efficiency improved. The PXN spread widened significantly, and the processing fees of downstream PTA and polyester products were further compressed. The terminal demand was weakening, and the polyester industry was under pressure. The price might continue to be strong in the short term but could decline if the polyester industry reduced production substantially [12]. - PTA: The supply - demand situation was not under great pressure in November - December, but the processing fee was compressed. The price followed the raw material PX, and a short - selling strategy after the rebound was recommended, with a long - term low - buying strategy and a long - short spread strategy for TA5 - 9 [12]. - MEG: The high polyester operating rate provided some support, but the overseas supply reduction was offset by sufficient imports, and the port inventory was expected to accumulate. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level, and a reverse spread strategy for EG5 - 9 and a short - selling strategy for EG2605 - C - 4100 were recommended [12]. - Short - fiber: The supply was high, and the demand was seasonally weak. The price followed the raw material, and a strategy of short - selling the processing fee was recommended [12]. - Bottle chips: The domestic supply was expected to increase, and the processing fee was expected to be compressed. A strategy similar to PTA was recommended, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [12]. Crude Oil - The international crude oil price rebounded on Monday, driven by geopolitical factors such as the US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker and the mutual attacks on energy facilities between Russia and Ukraine. - After the US - Ukraine negotiation, although the "peace plan" draft was completed, the situation in the Gaza Strip was still complex, and the repeated process would affect the crude oil price. The price was expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel, and the geopolitical situation should be continuously monitored [13]. LPG - The LPG futures prices of different contracts increased to varying degrees. The port inventory decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased slightly. - The market was affected by factors such as international prices and domestic supply - demand conditions, but no specific long - term trend prediction was provided in the report [16]. Urea - The urea futures market was weak, while the spot price was stable. The market mainly executed previous orders, and new orders were purchased cautiously, with a slight decline in trading volume. - India's new urea tender provided short - term support for the futures price. On the supply side, although the industry operating rate decreased slightly due to the shutdown of some gas - fired devices in Southwest and Inner Mongolia, the daily urea production remained at a high level of 19 - 20 million tons, and the supply pressure still existed. - On the demand side, agricultural demand was in the off - season, but the fertilizer reserve demand in Northeast and Guangdong provided some support, while industrial demand weakened marginally. The urea price was expected to fluctuate in the range of 1680 - 1730, and the device restart rhythm and downstream demand progress should be monitored [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - Price and Spread: The closing prices of MA2601 remained unchanged, while MA2605 increased slightly. The MA15 spread decreased, the basis in Taicang weakened, and the MTO05 disk price decreased significantly. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the regional spreads also changed [1]. - Inventory: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86% to 39.114 million tons, the port inventory decreased by 1.26% to 121.9 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 1.43% to 161.0 million tons [2]. - Operating Rate: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.29% to 77.63%, the overseas enterprise operating rate in Shanghai decreased by 5.43% to 60.5%, and the operating rates of different downstream industries showed different trends, with the acetic acid operating rate increasing significantly [3]. Polyolefins - Price and Spread: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all decreased. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed [6]. - Inventory: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 3.65% to 48.8 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.67% to 46.9 million tons. The PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory both decreased to zero [6]. - Operating Rate: The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.30% to 63.9%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.28% to 42.5%. The PP device operating rate increased by 1.37% to 79.4%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 53.8% [6]. Natural Rubber - Price and Spread: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex decreased by 0.34%, the basis weakened, and the prices of other varieties also showed different trends. The monthly spreads between different contracts changed [7]. - Fundamental Data: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while the production in India increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires were stable, and the domestic tire production and export volume increased in November [7]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515,227 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory in the SHFE decreased by 1.02% to 58,968 tons [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Spread: The glass and soda ash prices in different regions and contracts showed different trends, and the spreads and basis also changed [9]. - Inventory: The glass factory inventory increased, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [9]. - Real Estate Data: The new construction area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Price and Spread: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different regions and contracts changed, and the spreads and basis also showed different trends [10]. - Inventory: The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory decreased slightly [10]. - Operating Rate: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries showed different trends, and the operating rates of downstream industries also changed [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Price and Spread: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the spreads between different contracts and products also changed [11]. - Inventory: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [11]. - Operating Rate: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream industries showed different trends [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - Price and Spread: The prices of upstream raw materials and downstream polyester products increased, and the spreads and processing fees between different products changed [12]. - Inventory: The MEG port inventory increased, and the supply - demand situation of different products in the polyester industry chain was affected by factors such as production and demand [12]. - Operating Rate: The operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain showed different trends, with some industries' operating rates decreasing [12]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [13]. - Refined Oil Price and Spread: The prices of refined oil products increased, and the spreads between different contracts and products also changed [13]. - Crack Spread: The crack spreads of different refined oil products increased to varying degrees [13]. LPG - Price and Spread: The prices of LPG futures contracts increased, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [16]. - Inventory: The LPG refinery inventory ratio remained unchanged, and the port inventory decreased [16]. - Operating Rate: The upstream operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased slightly [16]. Urea - Price and Spread: The urea futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. The spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [18]. - Inventory: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased [18]. - Operating Rate: The industry operating rate decreased slightly, but the daily production remained at a high level [18].