Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term fundamentals remain strong. Tin prices are expected to maintain a strong trend within the year. Adopt a bullish approach, hold long positions, and consider buying on dips. Monitor subsequent macro and supply - side changes [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The strong cost and weak demand situation restricts the upward and downward space of ADC12 prices. It is expected to continue high - level range - bound oscillations in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Focus on changes in scrap aluminum supply, regional environmental policies, and downstream orders [4]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices remain high - level and volatile, and futures prices are still at a significant premium to the spot market. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and pay attention to the reduction in production and the acceptance of price adjustments. Remind investors to manage their positions [5]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand situation in December. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may break through 10,000 yuan/ton; otherwise, the price will fall [6]. Zinc - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and zinc prices are oscillating. Pay attention to the support level of 22,850 - 22,950 for the main contract [8]. Copper - In the long - term, the bottom center of copper prices may continue to move up. Pay attention to the support level of 92,500 - 95,000 for the main contract. Consider upward and downward driving factors for future trends [12]. Alumina - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate at a low level around the cash cost line. The main contract reference range is 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Pay attention to environmental protection and production reduction policies [15]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Focus on macro expectations and inventory changes [15]. Nickel - The short - term market is expected to continue to oscillate and repair, but the upward driving force is limited. The main contract reference range is 116,000 - 124,000. Pay attention to the callback possibility after news digestion [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 13,000. Pay attention to nickel ore news and the implementation of steel mill production cuts [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term. They may continue to test highs and then retreat and adjust. Pay attention to policy and news changes [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - Price and Spread: SMM 1 tin price increased by 3,500 yuan/ton to 340,600 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.04%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 51.00 dollars/ton to - 11.00 dollars/ton, with an increase of 82.26% [2]. - Fundamentals: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% [2]. - Inventory: SHEF inventory increased by 9.53%, and social inventory increased by 8.65% [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in various regions increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.46%. The refined - scrap price difference of aluminum in Foshan increased [4]. - Fundamentals: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84% [4]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.38% [4]. Polysilicon - Price and Spread: The main contract price decreased by 1,400 to 58,845, with a decline of 2.32%. The N - type silicon wafer price increased by 2 - 4%, and the battery cell price increased by 5% [5]. - Fundamentals: Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 12.18%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% [5]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory remained unchanged, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 7.73% [5]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Spread: Some industrial silicon spot prices increased by 50 yuan/ton. The futures price decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 8,595 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in the month, and the national start - up rate decreased by 4.84% [6]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory decreased by 1.43% [6]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased slightly, and the import loss increased [8]. - Fundamentals: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and exports increased by 402.59% [8]. - Inventory: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.95%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.65% [8]. Copper - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1,325 yuan/ton to 93,675 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.43%. The import loss increased [12]. - Fundamentals: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 3.90% [12]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased by 2.37%, and the SHFE inventory increased by 7.18% [12]. Alumina - Price and Spread: Alumina prices in various regions decreased slightly. The electrolytic aluminum import loss increased [15]. - Fundamentals: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [15]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the whole industry chain increased by 5.6 tons to a new high [15]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 21,930 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.50%. The spot discount widened [15]. - Fundamentals: In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, and exports increased by 116.23% [15]. - Inventory: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.67% [15]. Nickel - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 121,800 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.42%. The futures import loss decreased [16]. - Fundamentals: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66% [16]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory increased by 1.35%, and the social inventory increased by 0.41% [16]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil in Foshan increased by 50 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.39%. The spot - futures spread decreased [18]. - Fundamentals: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and exports increased by 13.18% [18]. - Inventory: The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 2.30% [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,350 yuan/ton to 99,000 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.38%. The inter - month spread changed [19]. - Fundamentals: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11% [19]. - Inventory: Lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 23.36% [19].
《有色》日报-20251223
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-23 00:52