大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251223

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The outer market has rebounded significantly due to potential changes in Indonesian quotas. Some production capacities have reduced recently, easing supply pressure. The overall situation remains bearish in the long - term. The 2602 contract will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium and long term [2] - 不锈钢: The spot price remains flat. Cost lines are stable, and inventory is decreasing. The 2602 contract is expected to move in a moderately strong oscillation [3] 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - 期货价格: On December 22, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,260, up 4,080 from December 19. The London Nickel price was 15,260, up 360. The Stainless Steel main contract was 12,850, up 130 [9] - 现货价格: On December 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,800, up 1,700 from December 19. Cold - rolled coil prices in major markets remained unchanged [9] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - 上期所镍库存: As of December 19, the total inventory was 45,280 tons, with futures inventory at 37,602 tons, increasing by 603 tons and 2,352 tons respectively [11] - 期货库存: On December 22, LME nickel inventory was 254,388 tons, down 162 tons from December 19. Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 38,922 tons, up 1,320 tons [12] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - 社会库存: On December 19, the Wuxi inventory was 581,200 tons, Foshan inventory was 307,700 tons, and the national inventory was 1,042,100 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 644,500 tons, down 18,100 tons [16] - 期货 inventory: On December 22, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 48,312 tons, down 183 tons from December 19 [17] Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - 镍矿价格: On December 22, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was $55 per wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was $29 per wet ton, unchanged from December 19 [21] - 海运费: The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was $8.5 per ton, and to Tianjin Port was $9.5 per ton, remaining stable [21] - 镍铁价格: The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 886.5 yuan per nickel point, up 1 yuan, and low - nickel (less than 2) was 3,250 yuan per ton, unchanged [21] Stainless Steel Production Cost - 生产成本: The traditional production cost was 12,614 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,008 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,399 yuan [23] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The calculated import price was 121,956 yuan per ton [26]