Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Date: December 23, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei -从业资格号: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are oscillating and consolidating, with a relatively loose domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic edible oil supply. Sino - US relations are stalemated, causing the export of new US soybeans to be frustrated and prices to be under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand is improving, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamental situation is neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,144, with a basis of 372, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, 20,000 tons more than the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000. [2] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,360, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, 10,000 tons more than the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%. [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - Expectation: Palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700. [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Consistent with soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,393, with a basis of 529, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, 10,000 tons more than the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,700 - 9,100. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - 利空: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventory is continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global edible oil fundamental situation is relatively loose. [5] Supply - Imported Soybean Inventory: Not detailed in the report, only mentioned [6] - Soybean Oil Inventory: On September 22, it was 1.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - Soybean Meal Inventory: Data charts are provided, showing inventory changes from 2015 - 2025 [9][10] - Oil Mill Soybean Pressing: Data charts are provided, showing changes from 2015 - 2025 [11][12] - Palm Oil Inventory: On September 22, it was 580,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: On September 22, it was 560,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - Rapeseed Inventory: Data charts are provided, showing inventory changes from 2015 - 2025 [21][22] - Domestic Total Edible Oil Inventory: Data charts are provided, showing the combined inventory changes of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils in East China from 2015 - 2019 [23][24] Demand - Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption: Data charts are provided, showing consumption changes from 2015 - 2025 [13][14] - Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption: Data charts are provided, showing consumption changes from 2015 - 2025 [15][16]
大越期货油脂早报-20251223
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-23 01:28