大越期货沪铜早报-20251223

Group 1: Report Core View - Copper's supply side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policy being liberalized. China's November manufacturing PMI is 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, still in contraction but showing marginal improvement [2] - The spot price is 93755 with a basis of -575, indicating a discount to futures [2] - On December 22, copper inventory decreased by 2650 to 157750 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 6416 tons to 95805 tons compared to last week [2] - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving upwards [2] - The main net position is long, changing from short to long [2] - Geopolitical disturbances persist, and due to the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, copper prices hit a new high and are expected to run at a high level in the short - term [2] Group 2: Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3] Group 3: Market Conditions - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13] - Processing fees have declined [15] - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19] - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [21]