沪锌期货早报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term market of Shanghai Zinc futures may fluctuate repeatedly, but the contract ZN2602 is expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner. The price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, with the short - term KDJ indicator rising in the weak area, the trend indicator falling, the dominance of bullish strength narrowing, and both bulls and bears increasing positions, with bulls increasing more [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Information - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons [2]. Basis - The spot price was 23,330, and the basis was + 215 [2]. Inventory - On December 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 650 tons to 99,250 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 2,588 tons to 42,590 tons [2]. Futures Market Quotes - On December 22, the trading volume of zinc futures on the exchange was 228,608 lots, with a turnover of 2.63755519 billion yuan. The total open interest was 195,110 lots, an increase of 1,508 lots [3]. Spot Market Quotes - On December 22, the price range of 0 zinc in Aoshi was 23,230 - 23,330 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,970 - 23,070 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 23,010 - 23,110 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 23,230 - 23,330 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc Ingot Inventory - From December 11 to December 22, the total inventory of zinc ingots in China's major markets decreased from 130,200 tons to 119,300 tons [5]. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On December 22, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipt was 42,590 tons, a decrease of 2,588 tons. Among them, Guangdong decreased by 2,312 tons, and Tianjin decreased by 276 tons [6]. LME Zinc Inventory - On December 22, the total LME zinc inventory was 99,250 tons, a decrease of 650 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warrant of 91,250 tons and a cancelled warrant of 8,000 tons, accounting for 8.06% [8]. Zinc Concentrate Price - On December 22, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions such as Jiyuan, Linzhou, and Kunming were around 19,960 yuan/ton, with a decline of 30 yuan/ton [10]. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On December 22, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Sanzhoulu Zhongba, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton [13]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production - In November 2025, the actual domestic refined zinc production was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 18.48%, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.45%. The planned production in December was 477,500 tons [15]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On December 22, the average processing fee for 50% - grade domestic zinc concentrate was around 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the average import processing fee was 50 US dollars/thousand tons [17]. Member Trading and Position Ranking - On December 22, in the SHFE member trading and position ranking of zinc, the total trading volume was 212,095 lots, an increase of 73,759 lots; the total long position was 63,613 lots, an increase of 2,641 lots; the total short position was 64,185 lots, an increase of 2,371 lots [18].