大越期货纯碱早报-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate downward in the short term due to high supply, declining terminal demand, high inventory, and an unimproved supply - demand mismatch [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants have high production, with the second - phase of Yuangxing expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume are in a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,115 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,169 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 54 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.93 tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][33]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate downward in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,176 | 1,125 | - 51 | | Current Value | 1,169 | 1,115 | - 54 | | Change Rate | - 0.60% | - 0.89% | 5.88% | [6] 5. Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 6. Supply in Fundamentals - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 146.70 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production method is - 109 yuan/ton, at a historical low [14]. - Operating Rate and Production Volume: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 82.74%. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 72.14 tons, including 39.03 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [17][19]. - Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 7. Demand in Fundamentals - Production - Sales Ratio: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 99.31% [24]. - Downstream Demand: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.50 tons, with an operating rate of 73.90% [27]. 8. Inventory in Fundamentals The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.93 tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 9. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].