大越期货白糖早报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous declines, the sugar futures contract SR2605 has short - term support near the 5000 mark, with some short - positions taking profits and reducing holdings, leading to a volatile rebound in the market [5][9] - The sugar market has both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include increased syrup tariffs and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are global sugar production increase, supply surplus in the new season, low international sugar prices leading to an open import profit window and increased import impact [7][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus, DATAGRO reduces the surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons (120 million tons higher than the August forecast), and StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the new season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the total import of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4] - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5370, and the basis for the SR2605 contract is 244, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: As of the end of October in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The position is bullish, with the net position changing from short to long, but the main trend is unclear, which is also considered bullish [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - demand Forecast: Different institutions' forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply - demand balance vary due to different core factors such as production increases in major producing countries and consumption growth rates [33] - Domestic Sugar Production: The sugar production in China is expected to reach 1.17 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with an import of 500,000 tons, consumption of 1.57 million tons, and an export of 18,000 tons, resulting in a surplus change of 82,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [35] - Import Cost: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was about 5086 yuan per ton at the end of October 2025, with good import profits due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [38] 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided