大越期货生猪期货早报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic large pigs for slaughter is gradually increasing. With the recent rise in swine fever in southern China, the short - term increase in slaughter is suppressing pig prices. It is expected that the supply of both pigs and pork will increase. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment expectation has improved slightly. The demand for cured meat in the north is gradually being released, which supports the price bottom, but overall consumption remains unoptimistic. Overall, the market this week may see an increase in both supply and demand. Pig prices may decline in the short - term and fluctuate within a range in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market. The outlook is neutral [8]. - The spot national average price is 11,340 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2603 contract is - 5 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The outlook is neutral [8]. - As of September 30, the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. This is a bearish signal [8]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward. This is a bullish signal [8]. - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing. This is a bearish signal [8]. - Recently, both the supply and demand of pigs have started to increase. It is expected that pig prices will enter a weak and volatile pattern this week. The LH2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of around 11,100 - 11,500 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints No specific content provided for daily hints. 3.2 Recent News - Affected by the approaching peak demand season and the spread of swine fever, the slaughter of pigs has increased, leading to more supply. The spot price is expected to remain volatile in the short and medium - term [10]. - With the arrival of the cured - meat demand at the end of the year, the pig spot market is gradually entering a stage of strong supply and demand. The short - term downward space for prices may be limited, and prices may return to a volatile trend [10]. - The loss of domestic pig - breeding profits has recently shifted to small fluctuations. Short - term profits still remain in the red, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has increased in the short - term. The increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The pig spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, returning to a volatile pattern. The futures market is still weak in the short - term and may generally maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: The domestic pig supply has entered the peak season at the end of the year, and the downward space for domestic pig spot prices may be limited [12]. - Bearish Factors: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [12]. - Main Logic: The market is focused on the pig slaughter situation and fresh - meat demand [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The report provides data on pig futures prices (near - month 2601 and main 2603 contracts), pig futures warehouse receipts, and external ternary pig spot prices in different regions from December 15 - 22 [13]. - It also presents various charts related to the pig market, including the basis and spread trends of pig futures, the average prices of different specifications of pigs in the spot market, supply - side indicators (such as binary sow prices, piglet indicators, inventory data from different sources, pork imports, etc.), slaughter - end prices, slaughter profits, demand - side consumption trends, pig - grain ratios, and the situation of pig storage and release [14 - 72]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position - related data analysis is provided other than the information about the net short position and the decrease in short positions of the main contract in the core viewpoints [8].