沥青期货早报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is expected to be reduced as refineries have cut production recently. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory situation is mixed. With the strengthening of crude oil prices, the cost support for asphalt is expected to strengthen in the short term. The asphalt 2602 contract is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 2966 - 3024 [7][8]. - The factors that are favorable for investment are the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support. The unfavorable factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, a downward trend in overall demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.1826%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points month - on - month. Sample enterprise shipments are 244490 tons, a decrease of 3.52% month - on - month, and sample enterprise production is 487000 tons, a decrease of 2.40% month - on - month. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 955000 tons, an increase of 1.17% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to be reduced next week [7]. - Demand - side: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.6%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of construction asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 7.6609%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 24%, a decrease of 3.00 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 27%, a decrease of 4.10 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.00% month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.36% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - Basis: On December 22, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 75 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 714000 tons, a decrease of 0.97% month - on - month; the in - plant inventory is 594000 tons, an increase of 0.51% month - on - month; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 27000 tons, a decrease of 42.55% month - on - month. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - Market trend: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions have decreased [8]. - Expectation: Refineries have recently reduced production, which eases supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand improvement is limited, and overall demand falls short of expectations and is sluggish. Inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support will strengthen in the short term. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating in the range of 2966 - 3024 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Price and basis trends: The report presents the price trends of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including their current values, previous values, and price changes. It also shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2020 - 2025 [15][18]. - Spread analysis: The report analyzes the spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025, as well as the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, and the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025. It also shows the比价 trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [22][25][27][31]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Northeast, North China, East China, South China, Northwest, Southwest) and the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [15][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis - Asphalt profit: The report shows the asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2025 [36][37]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread: The report shows the coking - asphalt profit spread trends from 2020 - 2025 [39][40]. - Supply - side analysis - Shipments: The report shows the weekly shipments of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [43][44]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - Production: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [48][49]. - Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production: The report shows the price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [52][53]. - Local refinery asphalt production: The report shows the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - Capacity utilization rate: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 - 2025 [59][60]. - Maintenance loss estimate: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss trends from 2018 - 2025 [61][62]. - Inventory analysis - Exchange warehouse receipts: The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [64][65]. - Social and in - plant inventory: The report shows the social inventory trends (70 samples) and in - plant inventory trends (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [68][69]. - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: The report shows the in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2025 [71][72]. - Import and export analysis: The report shows the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [74][75][78]. - Demand - side analysis - Petroleum coke production: The report shows the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 [80][81]. - Apparent consumption: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [83][84]. - Downstream demand: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trends of excavators, the domestic excavator sales trends, and the roller sales trends from 2019 - 2025 [86][87][90][91]. - Asphalt开工率: The report shows the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends, the asphalt开工率 trends classified by use (construction asphalt, modified asphalt), and the downstream开工率 trends (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt开工率) from 2019 - 2025 [95][96][98][99][100][101]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 - 2025, including monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105][106].