大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with last week's output at 22,045 tons, a 0.21% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the output was 95,350 tons, and the predicted output for the next month is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% increase. The import volume in November was 25,500 tons, and the predicted next - month import is 27,000 tons, a 5.88% increase [8][9]. - The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased last week [8][9]. - The cost of 6% concentrate CIF increased daily, but is lower than the historical average. The demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 110,360 - 114,600 [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [11][12]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: Last week's lithium carbonate output was 22,045 tons, a 0.21% week - on - week increase. In November 2025, the output was 95,350 tons, and the predicted next - month output is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% increase. The import volume in November was 25,500 tons, and the predicted next - month import is 27,000 tons, a 5.88% increase [8][9]. - Demand - side: The inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 102,271 tons last week, a 1.33% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 18,091 tons, a 2.33% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost - side: The cost of 6% concentrate CIF increased daily, but is lower than the historical average. The demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 110,360 - 114,600 [9]. - Positive factors: Lithium mica manufacturers' production cut plan and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile [11]. - Negative factors: Continuous high supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [12]. - Main logic: Emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Cost: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 107,766 yuan/ton, a 3.68% daily increase, with a production loss of 10,149 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica externally is 103,138 yuan/ton, a 3.11% daily increase, with a production loss of 7,988 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production profit is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [10]. - Basis: On December 22, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 99,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 15,380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 18,090 tons, a 5.58% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 41,485 tons, a 2.93% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 50,850 tons, a 2.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 110,425 tons, a 0.93% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, showing a neutral signal [10]. - Market trend: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [10]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - Futures closing price: The futures closing prices of different contracts increased, with the increase ranging from 2.52% to 3.07% [15]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts decreased, with the decrease ranging from 3.91% to 14.97% [15]. - Registered warrants: The number of registered warrants was 16,411, a 5.80% increase from the previous value [15]. - Upstream prices: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and related products showed different trends. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 4.55%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.38% [15]. 3.4 Supply - Related - Lithium ore: The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends over time. For example, the price of lithium ore fluctuated, and the production and import volume of lithium ore in different months changed [26]. - Lithium carbonate: The weekly and monthly production, import, and production capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (such as spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) showed different trends over time [32]. - Lithium hydroxide: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends over time [41][44]. 3.5 Demand - Related - Lithium battery: The price, production, shipment, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time. For example, the price of lithium batteries fluctuated, and the monthly production and shipment volume of power cells changed [58]. - Ternary precursor: The price, cost, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. For example, the price of ternary precursors fluctuated, and the monthly supply - demand balance changed [63][66]. - Ternary material: The price, cost, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary materials showed different trends over time. For example, the price of ternary materials fluctuated, and the monthly production and supply - demand balance changed [69][70]. - Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate: The price, cost, production, and supply - demand balance of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed different trends over time. For example, the price of lithium iron phosphate fluctuated, and the monthly production and supply - demand balance changed [73][76]. - New energy vehicle: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time. For example, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the penetration rate also increased [81][82].