甲醇产业期现日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The methanol futures market was weak with a slight weakening of the basis. The port may face inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance is expected to shift to de - stocking in Q1 of the next year. Inland, the supply - demand pattern will be stable with prices fluctuating slightly [1][3]. Polyolefins - The polyolefin market in 2026 is expected to see a decrease in cost and compression of profits, with the price center moving further down. PP has increased supply and decreased demand, while PE has a situation of both weak supply and demand [6]. Natural Rubber - Due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply and seasonal demand weakness, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market is in a bearish supply - demand pattern with prices continuing to decline. The glass market is under pressure from high inventory, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market has supply - demand pressure and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market will continue to trade in a range with weak demand at home and abroad [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene market has a weak supply - demand pattern in the short - term, and price increases are limited. The styrene market may be boosted in the short - term but has an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - The PX supply is high in the short - term, and the downstream processing fees are compressed. The PTA, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets follow the raw material trend. The MEG is expected to trade at a low level [12]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded due to geopolitical factors and are expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - 65 per barrel [13]. LPG - The LPG futures prices increased slightly, and the downstream PDH开工率 increased [16]. Urea - The urea market is affected by Indian tenders. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1680 - 1730 [18]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price and Spread: MA2601 remained unchanged at 2116 yuan/ton, MA2605 rose 0.33% to 2155 yuan/ton. The MA15 spread decreased 21.88% [1]. - Inventory: The methanol enterprise inventory increased 10.86% to 39.114 million tons, the port inventory decreased 1.26% to 121.9 million tons, and the social inventory increased 1.43% to 161.0 million tons [2]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The domestic upstream enterprise operating rate increased 1.29% to 77.63%, and some downstream operating rates changed [3]. Polyolefins - Price and Spread: The prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 decreased. The LP01 spread increased 12.86% [6]. - Inventory: The PE enterprise inventory increased 3.65% to 48.8 million tons, and the PP enterprise and trader inventories decreased to 0 [6]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The PE device operating rate decreased 0.30% to 63.9%, and the PP device operating rate increased 1.37% to 79.4% [6]. Natural Rubber - Price and Spread: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex decreased 0.34% to 14,800 yuan/ton. Some spreads changed [7]. - Fundamental Data: The production of some countries decreased, and the domestic tire production and export increased [7]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory increased 3.28% to 515,227 tons [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Spread: The glass and soda ash prices had different changes. The soda ash futures prices decreased slightly [9]. - Inventory: The glass factory inventory increased, and the soda ash factory inventory and glass factory soda ash inventory days remained stable [9]. - Real Estate Data: The real estate new - start area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Price and Spread: The prices of PVC and caustic soda decreased. The export profit of caustic soda increased 43.4% [10]. - Inventory: The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased 4.6% to 32.9 million tons, and the total social inventory decreased 1.3% to 51.1 million tons [10]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased 1.5% to 88.2%, and the PVC downstream product operating rates changed [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Price and Spread: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. The EB - BZ spot spread increased 8.1% [11]. - Inventory: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [11]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased 1.2% to 76.9%, and some downstream operating rates decreased [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Price: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream products changed [12]. - Downstream Product Price and Cash Flow: The prices of polyester products increased, and the processing fees were compressed [12]. - Operating Rates: The Asian PX operating rate decreased 0.5% to 78.9%, and the PTA operating rate decreased 0.5% to 73.2% [12]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: Brent crude oil rose 2.65% to $62.07 per barrel, and WTI rose 2.64% to $58.01 per barrel [13]. - Refined Oil Price and Spread: The prices of refined oil products increased [13]. - Refined Oil Crack Spread: The crack spreads of some refined oil products increased [13]. LPG - Price and Spread: The PG2601 rose 1.47% to 4280 yuan/ton, and the PG01 - 02 spread increased 30.25% [16]. - Inventory: The LPG port inventory decreased 7.89% to 261 million tons [16]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The downstream PDH operating rate increased 2.92% to 75.0% [16]. Urea - Price and Spread: The urea futures market was weak, and the spot price was stable [18]. - Inventory: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased 4.42% to 117.97 million tons [18]. - Supply and Demand: The daily urea production remained at a high level, and the demand was weak [18].