大越期货豆粕早报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - M2605 Soybean Meal: Expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780. Influenced by the US - China trade agreement and South American weather, it may show short - term weak oscillations. Factors like demand improvement, spot price premium, inventory changes, and market expectations contribute to this view [9]. - A2605 Soybeans: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The price is affected by the US - China trade situation, South American weather, and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans. Import volume and domestic production also impact the market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal (M2605): In a neutral position. Market factors include US - China trade, South American weather, demand, and inventory [9]. - Soybeans (A2605): Also in a neutral state. Influenced by similar factors as soybean meal, along with the cost - performance of domestic soybeans [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The initial agreement in the US - China tariff negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while oil mill soybean inventory remained high. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment, but the rising demand for soybean meal in December supported price expectations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Long Factors: Initial agreement in US - China trade negotiation, no pressure on domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory, and variable weather in US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Short Factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in December, and expected high - yield South American soybeans under normal weather conditions [15]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Long Factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [16]. - Short Factors: High - yield Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows trends in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio varying over the years [32]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 - 2024, data reflects changes in harvest area, import volume, production, consumption, and inventory, along with the inventory - to - consumption ratio [33]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9]. - Soybeans: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Information - Soybean Meal Futures and Spot: Futures showed weak oscillations, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight reduction in the spot premium [24]. - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread: The spot spread fluctuated slightly, and the spread in the 2605 contract narrowed slightly [29]. - Oil Mill Operations: Oil mill soybean crushing volume remained high, and soybean meal production in October increased year - on - year. Downstream purchases were low, while提货 volume was high [26][27]. - USDA Supply - Demand Reports: In the past six months, data on US soybean planting area, yield, production, and inventory showed some fluctuations, along with information on Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [44]. - US Soybean Exports: Weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - Imported Soybean Arrival: The arrival volume increased slightly in December and showed an overall year - on - year increase [47]. - Oil Mill Inventory and Contracts: Oil mill soybean inventory remained high, and soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. Unfulfilled contracts rose to a high level, indicating increased stocking demand [48][50]. - Brazilian Soybean Import Cost: Followed the oscillation of US soybeans and declined, with slight fluctuations in the market profit [53]. - Pig Farming: Pig inventory increased, sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices fluctuated slightly, and piglet prices were weak. The proportion of large pigs increased, and the cost of secondary fattening fluctuated slightly. Pig - farming profits also fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].