大越期货菜粕早报-20251223

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2320 - 2380. The market has returned to a state of oscillation while awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is in the 2320 - 2380 range. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bullish; the inventory is bullish; the price on the disk is bearish; the main position is bullish; and the short - term outlook is oscillatory [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the lack of pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory. - Bearish factors: The off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation. - The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From December 12 to 22, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2500 - 2520 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of soybean meal was around 3100 - 3138 yuan/ton. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal ranged from 599 - 631 yuan/ton [13]. - From December 12 to 22, the price of rapeseed meal futures' near - month 2601 contract was around 2389 - 2419 yuan/ton, the main 2605 contract was around 2323 - 2359 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was around 2490 - 2520 yuan/ton [15]. - From December 11 to 22, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - Rapeseed meal futures have oscillated and declined, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly, and the spot premium remaining at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract has narrowed slightly [18][20]. - Rapeseed imports have increased slightly in December, and the import cost has been affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory has remained low, and rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level. Oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume has remained at zero [23][25][27]. - Aquatic fish prices have declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.