大越期货尿素早报-20251223

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a urea morning report dated December 23, 2025, provided by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The agricultural and industrial demand is mainly on - demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. The export internal - external price difference is large, the short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - The bullish factor is inventory de - stocking, and the bearish factors are domestic oversupply and new high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rate are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The agricultural and industrial demand is on - demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. The export internal - external price difference is large, the short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 8, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.5%, which is neutral [4] Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons (- 40,000 tons), which is bearish [4] Futures Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate, industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is being de - stocked, short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious [4] Spot and Futures Quotes - The price of the spot delivery product is 1690 (unchanged), the price of the 05 contract is 1698 (+1), the basis is - 8 (- 1), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons (- 40,000 tons), etc. [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. have also shown certain changes. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, the production was 3425, and the net import volume was 360 [9]