大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251223

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today due to weak fundamentals, oversupply, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand [4][6] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized. The demand for agricultural films is gradually weakening, and packaging film orders have declined after the peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,250 (-130), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is 10, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000), which is bearish [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to show a volatile trend today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support [5] - Negative Factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5] - Main Logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized, while PDH profits have continued to decline due to strong propane prices. The plastic weaving industry has entered the off - season, with a decline in order volume, and the demand for pipes has decreased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,150 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 31, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, which is neutral [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 538,000 tons (+1,000), which is bearish [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract has increased, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to show a volatile trend today [6] - Likely Factors: Cost support [7] - Negative Factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7] - Main Logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [15]