广发期货日评-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations on various futures varieties, including judgments on their trends and corresponding operation suggestions [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Styrene (NI2602, EB2602): Expected to fluctuate strongly [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [3] - Palm Oil (P2605): Expected to be strong in the short - term [3] - Silver (AU2602): Suggest to buy on dips [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - Stock Index (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603): Opened higher and closed higher, with the technology sector leading the rise. After the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike, short - term negative factors are exhausted. The index has rebounded continuously, and broad - based ETFs have flowed back. The downside space is limited. The main line is unclear, trading volume is insufficient for an upward breakthrough, and volatility is low. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously. Short - term market may be driven by year - end performance - chasing trading demands, and it is advisable to view it as a volatile market. If participating in trading, enter and exit quickly and take profits in time [3] - Treasury Bonds (T2603, TF2603, TS2603, TL2603): With stable LPR and a strong stock market, treasury bond futures fluctuated downward. The 10 - year variety is relatively stable, and the upper limit of the interest rate is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. Pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8 for T2603. In the short - term, the sustainability of post - New Year's capital loosening. For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short - term and view it as a wide - range fluctuation. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the long - position substitution of the TL contract intraday, and the positive spread and basis widening opportunities of the short - term 2603 contracts [3] - Precious Metals (AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, PD2606): Without clear negative factors, the short - term market of precious metals will remain strong. Subsequently, pay attention to changes in the US economy and monetary policies of various countries. Hold long positions unilaterally. When silver rises sharply, pay attention to changes in the number of open contracts, warehouse receipts, and inventory, as well as the implementation of regulatory risk - control measures. Due to the festival effect, funds have driven gold, silver, platinum, and palladium to new highs, with platinum and palladium rising more. Be cautious of speculative long - positions taking profits at high levels, but high volatility still provides upward momentum for prices. It is recommended to buy on dips to increase the trading safety cushion. With strengthened regulatory risk - control measures, platinum and palladium still have short - term correction risks, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3] - Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC2602): The main contract fluctuated upward, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Non - Ferrous Metals and Steel Sector - Steel (RB2605): Steel production has been cut and inventory has been reduced, and prices will maintain a range - bound fluctuation. Pay attention to the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan for May rebar and 3200 - 3350 yuan for hot - rolled coils [3] - Iron Ore (I2605): High inventory suppresses price rebounds, while steel mills' restocking expectations support prices. It is advisable to conduct short - term operations within the range for the 05 contract, and try short positions around 800 [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Coal prices at production areas have fluctuated up and down, and Mongolian coal prices have followed futures fluctuations. The futures market has rebounded from oversold conditions. It is expected to rebound with fluctuations, with a reference range of 1000 - 1200 [3] - Coke (J2605): The third round of price cuts for coke in December has been implemented, and port trading prices have followed futures fluctuations. It is expected to rebound with fluctuations, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [3] - Silicon Iron (SF603): Production cuts have alleviated the supply - demand contradiction, and costs have remained stable. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with a reference range of 5400 - 5650 [3] - Manganese Silicon (SM603): High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the cost side provides support. Conduct short - term operations and try short positions when the price rebounds above the current cost in Ningxia [3] - Copper (CU2602): LME inventory has decreased, and the domestic spot has a discount. Wait and see in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 92500 - 95000 [3] - Alumina (AO2601): The futures market fluctuated at a low level around the cash cost. The main contract operates in the range of 2450 - 2650. Short - term traders can lightly buy on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - Aluminum (AL2602): The spot discount has widened, and market trading has been sluggish. The main contract operates in the range of 21800 - 22600. Buy on dips [3] - Aluminum Alloy (AD2602): Social inventory has been slowly reduced, and the futures market has been strong. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20800 - 21600. Conduct an arbitrage by going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [3] - Zinc (ZN2602): Zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and social inventory has continued to decline. Pay attention to the support at 22850 - 22950 for the main contract, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] - Tin (SN2601): The fundamentals are strong, and tin prices are fluctuating at a high level. Pay attention to the US interest - rate decision. Hold previous long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips [3] - Nickel (NI2602): Driven by both mine - end disturbances and valuation, the futures market has continued to rise with fluctuations. The main contract refers to 116000 - 124000 [3] - Stainless Steel (SS2602): The futures market has remained strong, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The main contract refers to 12500 - 13000 [3] - Industrial Silicon (Si2605): Some spot prices have risen slightly, and futures prices have fluctuated downward. The main contract refers to 8000 - 8800 [3] Energy and Chemical Sector - Polysilicon (PS2605): Cooling measures have been introduced, and polysilicon futures prices have fluctuated downward. It is fluctuating at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2605): The futures market has remained strong, and the exchange has announced an adjustment of some delivery warehouses. The main contract refers to 112,000 - 116,000 [3] - PX (PX2603): With a tight medium - term supply - demand outlook, PX has been favored by funds and has shown a strong trend. After a sharp rise in PX, be cautious about the current price. Reduce long positions on rallies, and do not chase the rise. Adopt a strategy of buying at low levels in the medium term. Focus on the low - level positive spread between PX5 - 9 [3] - PTA (TA2605): The outlook for raw material PX has improved, but the driving force for PTA is limited. However, strong support exists due to low processing fees. After PTA has followed PX's sharp rise, be cautious about the current price. Reduce long positions on rallies, and do not chase the rise. Adopt a strategy of buying at low levels in the medium term. Focus on the low - level positive spread between TA5 - 9 [3] - Short - Fiber (PF2602): The supply - demand outlook is weak, and short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials. The strategy is the same as that for PTA: mainly shrink the processing fee on the futures market when it rises [3] - Bottle Chip (PR2603): The cost side is strong, and the supply of PR is expected to increase. The short - term processing fee of PR will be compressed. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton. Shrink the processing fee on rallies. Hold the PR2602 - P - 5500 seller position [3] - Ethanol (EG2605): Overseas supply has shrunk, but the supply - demand outlook is still weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Conduct a reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 when it rises. Hold the EG2605 - C - 4100 seller position [3] - Pure Benzene (BZ2603): The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 will fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] - Styrene (EB2602): The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the driving force for styrene is limited. It is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 in the short - term [3] - LLDPE (I2605): In North China, it has maintained near the risk - free basis, and hedging transactions have improved [3] - PP (PP2605): Spot prices have remained stable, and the basis has weakened slightly. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3] - Methanol (MA2605): The spot basis has remained stable, and trading has been light. The MTO spread of the 05 contract will narrow [3] - Caustic Soda (SH2603): There is still pressure on supply and demand, and inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that prices will run weakly. Adopt a bearish approach [3] - PVC (V2605): The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and procurement prices have declined. Adopt a bearish approach on rebounds [3] - Soda Ash (SA2605): Production is at a high level, and the surplus is obvious. The futures market has weakened after a rebound. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds [3] - Glass (FG2605): Spot prices have been under pressure and weakened, and the off - season logic continues. Wait and see [3] - Natural Rubber (RU2605): There is a stalemate in the game between bulls and bears, and rubber prices will fluctuate within a range. Wait and see [3] - Synthetic Rubber (BR2602): The cost side is fluctuating, and with high BR supply and a premium on the futures market, BR will fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure around 11200 - 11300 for BR2602 [3] Agricultural Sector - Meal (M2605, RM605): US soybeans have no bright spots, and there is still pressure on the spot market. It will adjust in a narrow range [3] - Live Pigs (LH2603): Demand supports the market. Pay attention to the performance of second - fattening entry. It is in a bottom - grinding market [3] - Corn (C2603): There is still suppression above. Pay attention to the rhythm of supply increase. It will fluctuate weakly [3] - Oils (P2605, Y2605): With the Christmas holiday approaching, oils may fluctuate within a range. The P main contract may optimistically冲击 8500 in the short - term [3] - Sugar (SR2605): The supply outlook is loose. Adopt a bearish approach on rebounds [3] - Cotton (CF2605): The supply outlook is expected to shrink. It will fluctuate strongly [3] - Eggs (JD2602): Egg prices are mostly stable with a slight decline. It will fluctuate weakly [3] - Apples (AP2605): Weak demand limits the rebound height. It is recommended to take profits on long positions [3] - Jujubes (CJ2605): The expectation of oversupply dominates, and prices will run weakly. Sell out - of - the - money call options (CJ605 - C - 9700) [3]