野村东方国际 _ 日本央行加息的背景、展望及影响

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Japanese economy, indicating a shift in focus from anti-inflation measures to boosting potential growth rates [14]. Core Insights - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised its policy interest rate from approximately 0.5% to 0.75%, aligning with market expectations and indicating a normalization of monetary policy [10][11]. - The report highlights that the core CPI in Japan is nearing the target of stable 2% inflation, with expectations that it may drop below this level in early 2026 [16][19]. - The fiscal policy under Prime Minister Kishi is described as "active but responsible," aiming to balance economic stimulation with fiscal sustainability [104][113]. Summary by Sections 1. Background and Outlook of BOJ's Monetary Policy - The BOJ's decision to raise interest rates is driven by nearing inflation targets and pressures from yen depreciation [6][17]. - The central bank's stance remains cautious, with no new estimates provided for the neutral interest rate, which is crucial for future rate hikes [10][25]. - The report notes that the BOJ's future rate adjustments will depend on comprehensive assessments of actual rates and loan conditions [10][11]. 2. Yen Carry Trade: Scale Evolution, Trends, and Drivers - The report discusses the evolution of yen carry trades, noting that the scale of foreign banks' yen funding has fluctuated, peaking at 14.4 trillion yen in May before declining [38]. - The attractiveness of yen carry trades has increased due to a decrease in implied volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate [43]. 3. Fiscal Sustainability in Japan: Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Government Debt - Japan's government debt has been on the rise since the 1990s, with interest payments increasing significantly due to the BOJ's rate hikes [94][101]. - The report expresses concerns about the sustainability of Kishi's expansionary fiscal policies amid rising interest rates [90][93]. - The fiscal stimulus plan, amounting to 21.3 trillion yen, is expected to boost real GDP by approximately 0.3% [112][113].