建信期货工业硅日报-20251223

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of weak and stable operation. The futures price is in a weak and volatile pattern, and the spot price remains weak and stable. The supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and the fundamentals lack improvement expectations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The SI2605 contract price was 8,595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52%. The trading volume was 306,942 lots, the open interest was 221,606 lots, with a net increase of 11,733 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 8,020 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 12,218 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price declined slightly. The Sichuan 553 price was 9,200 yuan/ton, the Yunnan 553 price was 8,900 yuan/ton; the Sichuan 421 price was 9,900 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang 421 price was 9,400 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The southwest production area has fulfilled the seasonal production reduction expectation, and the room for further production decline is limited, with the monthly expected output at 360,000 tons. On the demand side, the production reduction and load - shedding of polysilicon have led to a decline in monthly output to around 110,000 tons. The operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, and there is no sustainability in centralized and large - scale production reduction. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The current industrial inventory has reached 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.40%; the futures inventory is 45,100 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, the futures price has weakened and is at a discount, resulting in insufficient motivation for inventory return. The fundamentals lack improvement expectations, the spot price remains weak and stable, the basis repair rebound has ended, and the resistance to the rebound is decreasing marginally. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [4]. 3.4 Market News - On December 22, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,019 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. - In the third week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 462,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 28.25%. - The silicone DMC market remained stable, with the current DMC quotation at 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/ton. Although the terminal demand has not shown a substantial recovery, the mentality of middle and downstream enterprises has improved marginally, and moderate restocking in the market has provided support. It is expected that the silicone market will rise steadily in the short term. - The polysilicon spot price has generally stabilized, and enterprises are determined to support prices, with individual enterprises raising their quotations. The downstream's willingness to purchase polysilicon is low, and it is difficult to see an increase in demand in the short term. The polysilicon inventory continues to increase slowly, and the inventory pressure has further suppressed the trading activity in the现货 market. It is expected that the polysilicon spot trading price will probably remain stable in the short term [5].