建信期货油脂日报-20251223

Group 1: Report Basic Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2605: Previous settlement price 8336, opening price 8256, highest price 8422, lowest price 8230, closing price 8414, up 18, increase 0.94%, trading volume 431457, open interest 452542, change -689 [7] - P2601: Previous settlement price 8320, opening price 8240, highest price 8406, lowest price 8230, closing price 8400, up 80, increase 0.96%, trading volume 25444, open interest 56436, change -5472 [7] - Y2605: Previous settlement price 7728, opening price 7714, highest price 1116, lowest price 7680, closing price 1112, up 44, increase 0.57%, trading volume 238786, open interest 658590, change -9833 [7] - Y2601: Previous settlement price 7956, opening price 7912, highest price 8016, lowest price 7912, closing price 8002, up 46, increase 0.58%, trading volume 42026, open interest 55188, change -15386 [7] - O1605: Previous settlement price 8823, opening price 8744, highest price 8892, lowest price 8712, closing price 8864, up 41, increase 0.46%, trading volume 281355, open interest 200067, change -8112 [7] - OI601: Previous settlement price 9013, opening price 8949, highest price 9066, lowest price 8893, closing price 9044, up 31, increase 0.34%, trading volume 16933, open interest 18383, change -3661 [7] Market Analysis - Intra - day oil and fat closed with a positive line, palm oil stopped falling and rebounded first. The rebound of CBOT soybeans and crude oil boosted the domestic oil and fat market [8] - Malaysian high - frequency data showed that the export data from December 1 - 20 improved and the production decline in southern Malaysia from December 1 - 20 expanded, providing support for the palm oil market [8] - Rumors of the suspension of imported soybean auctions and the continued decline of domestic soybean oil inventory made the basis of soybean oil strong, and the futures price had strong support at the current position [8] - Rapeseed oil was considered to have a lower valuation due to the record global rapeseed production and the contraction of Canadian exports affected by Chinese tariffs, and was generally used as a short - side allocation in arbitrage [8] Operation Suggestions - Futures prices may have an oversold rebound, but caution should be exercised regarding the height of the unilateral upward movement. In arbitrage, long positions in palm oil and soybean oil and short positions in rapeseed oil [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of December 17, the sowing of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean crop was 67.3% complete, up from 58.6% a week ago. 93% of the sown soybeans were rated normal to excellent, and 92% of the bean fields had suitable to optimal moisture. 6.2% of the soybeans had entered the early flowering stage, and the sowing progress of second - season soybeans reached 40.6% of the intended area [9] - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 851057 tons, up 2.4% from 831005 tons in the same period of November. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, down 4000 tons from the previous month [9] Group 4: Data Overview - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 6.26% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.17% [16] - AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 821442 tons, down 0.9% from 828680 tons in the same period of November [16] - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 676674 tons, up 43.6% from 471222 tons in the same period of November. Exports to China were 83,000 tons, up 45,000 tons from the previous month [16] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 851057 tons, up 2.4% from 831005 tons in the same period of November. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, down 4000 tons from the previous month [16]