贵金属日评-20251223

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to factors such as the year - end consumption peak season, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and the improvement of the global growth outlook, the precious metals sector, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly. Investors are advised to take a long - biased approach in precious metals trading, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their position sizes. Attention should be paid to the situations in Venezuela and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, as well as the US third - quarter GDP data this week [4]. - In the medium - term (2026), the accelerating restructuring of the global political and economic system and abundant monetary liquidity will support the continued strong performance of gold prices. However, Trump 2.0's new policies and the decrease in the intensity of the China - US game will restrain the upward momentum of gold prices. London gold is expected to rise to the range of $4800 - 5000 per ounce. With the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, silver, which has stronger industrial attributes and higher volatility, will gain greater upward momentum. London silver is expected to rise to $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce, and the London gold - silver ratio is expected to drop to around 65. Platinum's substitution for gold and silver in consumption and investment demand will continue, with London platinum expected to rise to $2000 - 2100 per ounce, and the London gold - platinum ratio expected to drop to around 2.4. Palladium will basically follow the trend of gold, with an annual increase target of $1620 - 1700 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a long - biased approach, short - hedgers should reduce the hedging ratio, and conservative investors can consider the arbitrage opportunity of long silver and platinum and short gold [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Geopolitical risks, such as the increased US military operations in the offshore area of Venezuela over the weekend, have pushed up precious metal prices and international oil prices. The market is also concerned about the potential impact of the new nominee for the Fed Chair. On Monday, the precious metals sector continued to perform strongly, and London gold reached a new high after two months of sideways adjustment [4]. - Domestic precious metals showed significant increases. The intraday increase of the Shanghai Gold Index was 2.10%, the Shanghai Silver Index was 5.42%, the Guangzhou Platinum Index was 6.52%, and the Guangzhou Palladium Index was 5.87% [5]. Medium - term Market - Forecasts for 2026: London gold to $4800 - 5000 per ounce; London silver to $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce with a gold - silver ratio of around 65; London platinum to $2000 - 2100 per ounce with a gold - platinum ratio of around 2.4; London palladium to $1620 - 1700 per ounce [5]. - Trading strategies: Long - biased approach for investors, reducing the hedging ratio for short - hedgers, and considering the arbitrage opportunity of long silver and platinum and short gold for conservative investors [5]. 2. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Regarding the Fed's stance, different officials have different views. New York Fed President Williams believes there is no urgent need to cut interest rates again, Fed Governor Milan advocates for a rate cut, Cleveland Fed President Hamark thinks there is no need to adjust interest rates in the next few months, and White House economic advisor and Fed Chair candidate Hassett agrees with Trump's view that inflation is very low [17]. - US military actions near Venezuela: The US Coast Guard is pursuing an oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela. Trump still believes there is a possibility of war with Venezuela, but the White House claims that US citizens don't need to worry about oil price increases [17]. - China's trade data: In November, China's rare - earth magnet exports significantly rebounded, reaching a 10 - month high. Exports to Japan reached a record high, and those to the EU were the second - highest on record, while exports to the US declined. China's soybean imports in November reached the highest level in the same period in four years, with imports from Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay hitting record highs in the same period, but there was zero import of US soybeans for the third consecutive month, setting a record for the longest period of zero imports [18].