建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market continues to operate weakly at the bottom due to the combined effects of supply recovery, the demand entering the off - season inventory digestion cycle, and the spread of market pessimism [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The L2605 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 6,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 152 yuan/ton (-2.38%), with a turnover of 669,000 lots and an increase of 7,828 lots in positions to 606,042 lots. The PP2605 contract of polypropylene (PP) closed at 6,119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 113 yuan (-1.81%), with an increase of 13,800 lots in positions to 547,800 lots [3][4] - As the device maintenance losses in December decreased significantly month - on - month and the previously shut - down devices restarted one after another, the market supply pressure increased month - on - month. The demand side was restricted by the seasonal off - season, showing obvious weakness. The downstream load of PE mostly declined, and although the PP operating rate remained basically stable, factories mainly digested their previously purchased inventories, with a low willingness to make new purchases [4] - The decline in futures prices directly suppressed spot prices and market sentiment. Some producers lowered their factory prices, and traders' quotes generally followed suit. However, downstream factories lacked confidence in entering the market and mostly adopted a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [4] 3.2 Industry News - On December 22, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 720,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons (9.09%) from the previous working day, compared with 650,000 tons in the same period last year [5] - PE market prices continued to decline. The price of LLDPE in North China was 6,250 - 6,600 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,280 - 6,800 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,300 - 6,600 yuan/ton [5] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily quoted at 5,870 - 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Some polypropylene plants were still shut down, and there was still external sales of propylene as a raw material. The demand support for propylene was insufficient, and the overall market supply was loose. Producers further offered price concessions [5] - The center of the PP market moved down. The mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 5,920 - 6,100 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,000 - 6,200 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,090 - 6,300 yuan/ton [5]