建信期货豆粕日报-20251223

Report Overview - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term external market has insufficient bullish factors and may test the support at 1050 cents. Considering the reduced pressure on the new - season ending inventory, there is expected to be some support at the bottom [6]. - In the domestic market, the increase in auction frequency and high port soybean inventory lead to insufficient bullish factors. The futures market is expected to be weaker than the external market in the short term, with a need for a supplementary decline. It is not advisable for bulls to buy the dip for now. Potential bullish factors are changes in South American weather and the USDA's output adjustment in January, but there is no driving force at present [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review - External Market: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. The 12 - month supply - demand report was mediocre. China has purchased over 765 tons of US soybeans as of mid - December, and it is not difficult to complete the 1200 - ton purchase target. However, other countries have shifted to Brazil, and the current US soybean export sales are nearly 40% lower than the same period last year. In South America, Brazil's new - season rainfall is good, and most major producing states have no severe drought problems. Argentina is in the late sowing stage, and the rainfall has improved in the next two weeks [6]. - Domestic Market: The increase in auction frequency makes it difficult for the soybean meal spot market to be in short supply, and the port soybean inventory is at a relatively high level [6]. - Operation Suggestions: The futures market is expected to be weaker than the external market in the short term, with a need for a supplementary decline. Bulls should not buy the dip for now [6]. 3.2 Industry News - In Brazil, the soybean planting area in Rio Grande do Sul has reached 76% of the expected 6.74 million hectares, lower than last year's 80% and the historical average of 84% due to dry weather during the planting period. However, the average yield per unit is still expected to be 3180 kg/ha, a significant increase from the previous year [7]. - In Argentina, as of December 11, the soybean planting rate in the 2025/26 season was 58%, up from 49% last week but lower than 66% in the same period last year [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate, but no specific data analysis is presented in the text [14][17][18].