建信期货生猪日报-20251223

Report Overview - Report Name: Pig Daily Report - Date: December 23, 2025 - Industry: Pig industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. Second - round fattening and pig retention in October have increased supply pressure before the Spring Festival. The overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal, with a planned December slaughter of 27.72 million heads, a 4.64% monthly increase [9]. - On the demand side, second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with a small amount of rolling restocking demand in December. Cold weather has increased demand for curing and enema, but after the Winter Solstice stocking, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughter enterprises have slightly decreased [9]. - Policy - wise, the anti - dumping tax on imported pork and pig by - products from the EU has a limited impact due to the low proportion compared to domestic consumption [9]. - Overall, the spot market will likely fluctuate due to increased supply and demand, with weakened demand after the Winter Solstice. The futures market will face double supply pressure from second - round fattening in October and continuous capacity release, putting pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, prices have dropped significantly compared to last year, and the increase in northern epidemics has made bottom - end fluctuations more frequent [9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: On the 22nd, the main 2603 pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then rose and fell back, closing up 0.49% at 11,345 yuan/ton. The total index position decreased by 8,417 lots to 346,875 lots [8]. - Spot market: On the 22nd, the national average price of三元 pigs was 11.43 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. 3.2 Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - Slaughter volume: In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned December slaughter volume is 27.72 million heads, a 4.64% monthly increase and a 1.27% daily increase [13]. - Piglet price: The average market price of 15 - kg piglets is 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week [13]. - Profit and cost: As of December 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 119.8 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened from purchased piglets was - 238.2 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.2 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week, while the expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter was 11.42 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [13]. - Average slaughter weight: As of the week of December 18, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg from last week (a 0.42% weekly increase), up 1.37 kg from last month (a 1.06% monthly increase), and down 0.50 kg from the same period last year (a 0.38% annual decrease) [13].