建信期货国债日报-20251223

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Last week, the bond market recovered due to rising expectations of easing. However, this week, the disappointment of LPR cuts and the pending public fund new regulations have cooled the bullish sentiment in the bond market again. Coupled with the potential pressure of the stock market's Spring Festival rally on the bond market, there are many short - term negative factors for the bond market. But the cross - year capital situation is expected to remain loose, supporting the long - end. It is advisable to pay attention to the strategy of shorting the long - end and going long on the short - end to steepen the yield curve [11]. - Long - term: After continuous adjustments in the bond market, current interest rates have returned to reasonable pricing. The deviation from policy rates is narrowing, and the basis has rebounded above the historical center, indicating that the market is not pricing in next year's interest rate cuts, and futures have slightly over - adjusted compared to the spot market. With the weak economic fundamentals remaining unchanged, there is room for easing next year. When the expectation of easing rises at the beginning of next year, there is significant upside potential for long - end futures varieties [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation on the Day: LPR remained stable, the expectation of easing was dashed, and the strong performance of the A - share market suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to decline across the board [8]. - Interest Rate Spot Bonds: The yields of major term interest rate spot bonds in the inter - bank market rose across the board. The increase in the long - end active bonds was less than 1bp. As of 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.8435%, up 0.85bp [9]. - Funding Market: The inter - bank funding market was loose, and cross - year funds were stable. There were 2509 billion yuan of maturities in the open market today, and the central bank injected 673 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1836 billion yuan. The decline of the inter - bank funding sentiment index indicated the relief of funding pressure. The overnight and 7 - day funding rates declined slightly. The 14 - day cross - year rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6%, medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated between 1.64% and 1.66% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - LPR: The LPR quotation in December remained stable. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (the same as last time), and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5% (the same as last time) [13]. - 国务院 Meeting: The State Council executive meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference, required to accelerate the formulation of specific implementation plans, and ensure a good start for the "15th Five - Year Plan". It also deployed a comprehensive solid waste treatment action and reviewed and approved the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft)" [13]. - Automobile Market: According to preliminary estimates by the Passenger Car Association, the total retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in December is expected to be around 2.3 million units, a slight month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle retail sales can reach around 1.38 million units, with a penetration rate of 60% [13]. - Local Bonds: Jiangsu Province is expected to issue 105.6 billion yuan of local bonds in the first quarter of next year, including 70 billion yuan of new bonds and 35.6 billion yuan of refinancing bonds. As of December 19, 7 regions including Sichuan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hebei, and Jilin have announced their local bond issuance plans for the first quarter of next year, with a total bond issuance scale of 657.712 billion yuan [13]. - Real Estate: The policy thinking of the real estate industry has changed from short - term "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to medium - and long - term "stabilizing the market". Some cities have shown a positive trend of stabilizing and improving. Relevant departments in Beijing, Nanjing, Shenzhen and other places have jointly rectified real estate accounts and self - media to strengthen industry management [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: Includes information such as the trading data summary of treasury bond futures on December 22, the spread between main contracts of treasury bond futures across different terms and varieties, and the trend of main contracts [6][15][16]. - Money Market: Involves the changes in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase, the interest rate of pledged repurchase between banks and depositors, the term structure and trend of SHIBOR [26][31]. - Derivatives Market: Covers the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [36].