建信期货铜期货日报-20251223

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current rise in copper prices lacks demand support and is mainly driven by macro and supply factors. It is expected that copper prices will continue to rise due to sentiment factors [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper broke through the recent trading range, with the main contract reaching a maximum of 94,730. The 01 - 02 spread widened to 210. After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the yen depreciated significantly, and the market's previous concerns about the impact of the interest rate hike did not materialize. The US stock AI sector rebounded sharply, and the market's bullish sentiment recovered. The sharp rise in the precious metals sector also drove copper prices higher [10] - Spot copper rose 1,325 to 93,675 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened 35 to 195. At the end of the year, downstream demand was weak. China's social inventory increased 0.26 to 16.84 million tons compared to last Thursday. Short - term copper prices were driven up by macro factors, while downstream demand was suppressed by high copper prices [10] - The LME 0 - 3 structure turned to back at 4.73 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 7.85. The spot import loss widened to around 1,600, indicating limited subsequent imports of copper [10] - Chinese smelters and Antofagasta set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at 0 dollars/ton and 0 cents/pound, suggesting a tight copper ore market in 2026 [10] 3.2 Industry News - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered the probability of the US imposing a refined copper tariff in the first half of 2026 from 80% to 25%. The new base scenario (55% probability) is that a 15% tariff will be announced in the first half of 2026 but postponed until 2027 to take effect, and may be raised to 30% in 2028. This adjustment is based on the US government's policy tendency to reduce interference with enterprises [11] - The International Energy Forum (IEF) reported that over 60% of global key mineral demand is met through international trade. The copper and nickel markets may face substantial shortages in the mid - 2030s, and lithium supply remains concentrated in a few countries. Governments are accelerating their responses by implementing strategic planning, export controls, and domestic processing authorizations [12]