广发期货《有色》日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Short - term fundamentals remain strong. Tin prices are expected to stay strong within the year. Maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold long positions, and consider buying on dips. Monitor subsequent macro and supply - side changes [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The market is in a state of strong cost and weak demand. ADC12 prices have limited upside and downside space. The price is expected to continue to oscillate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Focus on changes in scrap aluminum supply, regional environmental policies, and downstream orders [4]. Polysilicon Industry - Polysilicon prices remain in high - level oscillation, and futures prices are still at a significant premium to the spot market. Pay attention to the reduction in production or price decline pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for now, and focus on the subsequent production cuts and price adjustment acceptance. Remind investors to manage their positions [5]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Some industrial silicon spot prices rose slightly. Futures prices oscillated and declined. Supply and demand both decreased moderately, and the expectation of industrial silicon production cuts further increased. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in December, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may break through 10,000 yuan/ton; otherwise, it will fall [6]. Zinc Industry - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and zinc prices are oscillating. Domestic zinc concentrate production is in the off - season, while overseas zinc ore imports have increased. Refining production is limited due to profit pressure. Downstream demand is stable, and domestic spot zinc ingots maintain a premium with continuous inventory depletion. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the squeeze risk has eased. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 22,850 - 22,950 [8]. Copper Industry - Against the background of the overseas inventory structural imbalance, copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; the downward drivers are the weak demand feedback. In the long - term, the bottom center of copper prices may continue to rise, and the main contract should pay attention to the support at 92,500 - 95,000 [12]. Alumina and Aluminum Industry - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate at a low level around the cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Pay attention to environmental protection policies and corporate production cuts. Aluminum prices lack a one - way driver and are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the SHFE aluminum main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Focus on macro - expectations and domestic inventory changes [15]. Nickel Industry - The nickel market sentiment has improved due to low valuations and mine - end news, but the short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price upside is restricted. The short - term is expected to continue oscillating and repairing, but the driving force is limited. Pay attention to the possibility of a callback after the news is digested, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 [16]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless - steel market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand game continues. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 13,000. Pay attention to nickel - mine news and steel - mill production - cut implementation [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term wide - range oscillation. The price may continue to test the high and then retreat and adjust. Pay attention to policies and news [19]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - Spot Prices and Basis: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices rose by 1.04%, and LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 82.26%. The import loss increased by 4.56% [2]. - Inter - month Spreads: Some spreads changed significantly, such as the spread between 2602 - 2603 increasing by 52.78% [2]. - Fundamental Data: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and the average SMM refined tin operating rate increased significantly, while refined tin imports and exports decreased [2]. - Inventory Changes: SHEF weekly inventory and social inventory increased, while SHEF daily warehouse receipts and LME daily inventory decreased [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - Prices and Spreads: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions rose by 0.46%, and the scrap - to - refined price difference in some areas increased [4]. - Inter - month Spreads: Some spreads changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamental Data: In November, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased, while the import and export of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased. The operating rate of recycled and primary aluminum alloys increased [4]. - Inventory Changes: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.38% [4]. Polysilicon Industry - Spot Prices and Basis: Some N - type silicon product prices rose, and the N - type material basis increased by 17.85% [5]. - Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads: The main contract price decreased by 2.32%, and most inter - month spreads changed significantly [5]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly and monthly silicon wafer and polysilicon production decreased, polysilicon imports decreased, and exports increased [5]. - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon inventory remained unchanged, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 7.73% [5]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis: Some industrial silicon spot prices rose slightly, and the basis increased [6]. - Inter - month Spreads: Some spreads changed significantly, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 100% [6]. - Fundamental Data: National and regional industrial silicon production decreased, while the production of organic silicon DMC and recycled aluminum alloy increased. The national operating rate decreased [6]. - Inventory Changes: Xinjiang and Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased, while social inventory decreased by 1.43% [6]. Zinc Industry - Prices and Spreads: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices decreased slightly, and the import loss increased [8]. - Inter - month Spreads: Some spreads changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental Data: In November, refined zinc production and imports decreased, and exports increased significantly. The operating rates of downstream processing industries were basically stable [8]. - Inventory Changes: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory and LME inventory decreased [8]. Copper Industry - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper prices rose by 1.43%, and the import loss increased [12]. - Inter - month Spreads: All inter - month spreads decreased [12]. - Fundamental Data: In November, electrolytic copper production increased, and imports decreased. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production decreased, while that of recycled copper rod production increased [12]. - Inventory Changes: Domestic social, bonded, and SHFE inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased [12]. Alumina and Aluminum Industry Alumina - Prices and Spreads: Alumina prices in different regions decreased slightly, and the import profit decreased [15]. - Inter - month Spreads: Some spreads changed, such as the AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [15]. - Fundamental Data: In November, alumina production decreased, and the operating rate increased slightly [15]. - Inventory Changes: Alumina factory - warehouse and port inventories changed, with the port inventory decreasing by 7.69% [15]. Aluminum - Prices and Spreads: SMM A00 aluminum prices rose by 0.50%, and the import loss increased [15]. - Inter - month Spreads: Some spreads changed, such as the AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [15]. - Fundamental Data: In November, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased, imports decreased, and exports increased [15]. - Inventory Changes: China's electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories increased [15]. Nickel Industry - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel prices rose by 1.42%, and the import profit increased [16]. - Inter - month Spreads: Some spreads changed, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread increasing by 40 yuan/ton [16]. - Supply, Demand and Inventory: In November, China's refined nickel production and imports decreased. SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [16]. Stainless Steel Industry - Prices and Basis: 304/2B stainless - steel coil prices in some regions rose slightly, and the spot - futures price difference decreased [18]. - Inter - month Spreads: Some spreads changed, such as the 2603 - 2604 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [18]. - Fundamental Data: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production decreased slightly, imports decreased, and exports increased. The 300 - series social inventory decreased [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - Prices and Basis: SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices rose, and the lithium spodumene concentrate price also increased [19]. - Inter - month Spreads: All inter - month spreads decreased [19]. - Fundamental Data: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, imports decreased, and exports increased. The total inventory decreased significantly [19].